1) And now for the afternoon thread of Iran: How utterly fucked is it?!?
2) Courtesy of @TessHottenroth, a few fun little snippets of the shitshow that is Iran right now. Think we pay our teachers bad? Try teachers in Iran being unpaid for 10 months now. They're currently on strike.
3)
Protests and strikes continue nationwide (seriously, I fucking LOVE that graphic.)
Protests and strikes continue nationwide (seriously, I fucking LOVE that graphic.)
4)
Rampant, unchecked corruption from top regime officials.
Rampant, unchecked corruption from top regime officials.
5) worldbank.org/en/country/iran
But don't worry, Iran bounced back in 2016 economically! Which TOTALLY explains all the rampantly late payments of government salaries and the fact that the Rial's value remains equivalent to that of toilet paper! That's called a dead body bounce.
But don't worry, Iran bounced back in 2016 economically! Which TOTALLY explains all the rampantly late payments of government salaries and the fact that the Rial's value remains equivalent to that of toilet paper! That's called a dead body bounce.
6) See, Iran's government likes to say that things are getting better, that they're trying to increase public spending while reducing unemployment and privatizing as much of their economy as they can. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
7) tehrantimes.com/news/419900/Bu… But there exists holes deep enough that a socialist government like Iran's islamofascist regime cannot dig itself out of.
8) Alright, enough information, lets get into the topic of today: the regime was about to collapse under sanctions and would have had @BarackObama not gone all Neville Chamberlain on us and appeased the absolute dogshit out of Iran's totalitarian, islamofascist regime.
9) We were hitting the state-owned businesses, including dozens linked directly to Khomenei himself, with sanctions. Until the Iran deal in 2015
10) reuters.com/article/us-ira…
We were destroying their government-owned banks with SWIFT sanctions... until the Iran deal in 2015.
We were destroying their government-owned banks with SWIFT sanctions... until the Iran deal in 2015.
11) 2 days ago, Iran's central bank has halted the creation of new private banks and lenders after several of them collapsed and caused thousands of people to lose their savings. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… This is what we were waiting for. THIS.
12) "Iran’s central bank has ceased issuing permits and licenses for new private banks or commercial lenders, after the collapse of several major institutions froze the savings of hundreds of thousands of depositors and helped fuel anti-government protests."
13) Sorry, make that hundreds of thousands of depositors lost everything when those financial institutions collapsed. This isn't just the private near-ponzi scheme banks. Local banks are being burned as they run out of money too.
14) All of this would have happened 2 years ago had the Obama administration not given away the entire farm and several pallet loads of cash to Iran. The corruption, the theft, the inefficiencies, they were on borrowed time under sanctions.
15) Trump did what he could, allowing the Iran deal another few months and demanding new legislation from Congress restructuring the Iran deal, while at the same time imposing sanctions not previously lifted by the Iran deal. reuters.com/article/us-ira…
16) Much like the Russian sanctions applied weeks before Trump was sworn into office, the Iran Deal's reach has left the administration's hands tied in what they can do with Iran. But, Trump is a dealmaker, and the tools he does have (threatening the iran deal, etc) he's using.
17) Right now, my expectations are this: The banking crisis is going to continue to be exacerbated, do NOT expect the IMF to get involved in any meaningful capacity. The privatization they've called for years ago still have not manifested.
18) Iran's economy is already bottomed out. There may be hyper inflation (if there isn't already, given how quickly the rial has been devaluing) depending on how bailouts develop; as the Iranian central bank lacks a lot of autonomy, hyperinflation seems likely.
19) We may not hear of large protests again, but more strikes and more bank burnings seem to be how the resistance to the regime is developing. It means less killing, and it means the security forces will be feeling the pinch soon when THEIR paychecks start bouncing.
20) If you ask me, the delay in decertifying the nuclear deal is Trump giving the Iranian protests more time to ripen, 3 months being more than enough. If he ends the deal as promised in April, SWIFT sanctions and senior regime official sanctions will be fatal.
21) Think about the bank sanctions like this; if Trump does them now, many people lose their savings and it could be blamed on the US. In 3 months, many will have already lost their savings, and we'll be more kicking over an old sandcastle than bulldozing a fresh one.
22) So, patience, relax, and keep supporting the protesters. People who know what they're doing have things well in hand, and we're still on track for a bloodless regime change. All will be well. /end
