Thread by @JLownLaw

Will the Nunes memo include key facts?

2013: Carter Page met with a Russian spy named Victor Podobnyy.

The FBI busted a Russian spy ring that was seeking information on US sanctions & energy.

Jan 2015: Charges were filed against Podobnyy & 2 others.

buzzfeed.com/alimwatkins/a-…

Page’s connection to Russian intelligence "occurred more than three years before his association with Trump." The FBI was aware of this connection well before #FusionGPS was hired to look into Trump, initially by a conservative supporter of an opponent buzzfeed.com/alimwatkins/a-…

Nunes & GOP members on the House Intelligence Committee who voted to release the memo also know that Page testified that he was invited to speak in Russia soon after joining the Trump campaign and that he sought permission for his trip ahead of time. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/11/06…

After having had contacts with Russian spies, after the FBI busted that spy ring & after joining the Trump campaign, Carter Page went to Russia in July, 2016 & had "an encounter" with a Kremlin official, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich. cnn.com/2017/11/06/pol…

Carter Page said he "informed senior campaign officials Corey Lewandowski, Hope Hicks and JD Gordon about his trip ahead of time." Page also told the committee that he mentioned his July 2016 trip to Russia ahead of time to Jeff Sessions. amp.cnn.com/cnn/2017/11/06…

In Russia, Carter Page openly criticized US policy in his speech: “Washington and other Western capitals have impeded potential progress through their often hypocritical focus on ideas such as democratization, inequality, corruption and regime change."
newsweek.com/carter-page-fb…

Then the Trump camp tried to distance themselves: In Aug, Hope Hicks said Page “does not speak for Mr. Trump or the campaign.” Sept, Jason Miller said he has “never been a part of our campaign."
Then Page announced his leave of absence from the campaign. newsweek.com/carter-page-fb…

Page’s prior contacts with Russian spies, admiration for Putin, sudden & seemingly odd appearance on a US presidential campaign, his personal investments & time spent in Russia & his contacts while there, are all valid reasons for the FBI to be concerned. newsweek.com/carter-page-fb…

Keep in mind, when Nunes' memo comes out, that he and his GOP cohorts on the House Intelligence Committee know all of this. They also know that a warrant for surveillance of a US person requires approval by a judge, which isn't given without significant & sufficient back up.

Nunes' memo probably also won't mention, that the FBI 1st began monitoring Page’s communications under a FISA warrant in the summer of 2014 owing to his 2013 contacts with Russian spies.
That was long before the #SteeleDossier
slate.com/articles/news_…

This is very important.
First, it means that the FBI had presented sufficient, substantial evidence to a judge to be granted a FISA warrant to monitor Carter Page's communications in 2014. Second, the FBI likely gained additional information about Page during that monitoring.

The fact there was a FISA warrant in 2014 also means it would be patently dishonest if Nunes tries to claim or suggest in his (&/or the WH's) memo that the FISA warrant approved in September, 2016 relied solely on information obtained from the #SteeleDossier &/or #FusionGPS.

Again, the FBI had sufficient information to obtain a FISA warrant in 2014. Adding facts discovered during prior surveillance & any additional facts obtained by investigating info in the #SteeleDossier would simply add further support to justify a 2nd warrant in 2016. Not less.

Facts learned after the FBI's 2014 FISA warrant include Page's sudden (somewhat inexplicable) appearance on Trump's team as an advisor, his praise of Putin, his July trip to Russia, meeting a member of the Kremlin, and meetings with other Russians. amp.slate.com/articles/news_…

Considering the facts, as explained above, this rare warning from the FBI should give the WH serious second thoughts about releasing Nunes' memo.

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"If the Nunes Memo does not indicate when the investigation underlying the Page FISA application was opened or how many months/years of investigative activity preceding the dossier is detailed in the [2016] FISA application" it is not complete or accurate. justsecurity.org/51630/five-que…

Moreover, a FISA application does not even go to the court without 1st going through a "careful vetting process ... known as Woods Procedures ... where every fact contained in the application is verified."
By DOJ lawyers.
Serious professionals. justsecurity.org/51630/five-que…

Then there's the judge.
"Alleging a concerted conspiracy by the FBI/DOJ in obtaining the Page FISA necessarily implicates the judge who approved it, and suggests they are incompetent (at best) or corrupt (at worst)."

Nunes is way over his head here.
justsecurity.org/51630/five-que…

Moreover, a FISA warrant would only be good for 90 days. Issued in September, the FBI would have had to go back to court in 90 days & justify extending it, at least once, before Rosenstein was even in his current position in March.

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Unroll this thread please @threadreaderapp