Don't listen to the White House on what the Gates deal means. Don't listen to pundits who say Gates can only provide information on the Manafort case. Gates would be given a deal because of what he knows about the Russia investigation. Remember he helped change the GOP platform.
2/ Understand, too, that co-conspirators naturally share information about criminal activities. Gates is a long-time Manafort co-conspirator, as the indictments against him allege. That means he knows many Manafort secrets, including any Russia-related ones. This is a big deal.
3/ As was the case in the Papadopoulos/Flynn deals, Mueller will keep his cards close to the vest in any statement of the facts attached to a Gates plea. The White House will falsely say this is evidence Gates provided no Russia information. Discard such statements out-of-hand.
4/ Don't assume that the sole or even primary purpose of flipping Gates is flipping Manafort (with the aim of eventually prosecuting Trump post-impeachment). If Gates knows what Manafort does, Manafort stays a target and Gates is used in prosecutions of both Manafort *and* Trump.
5/ That said, of course Manafort feels pressure on learning his deputy/co-conspirator is entering into an agreement with Mueller. But Manafort feeling pressure may *not* be Mueller's aim. And even if he's willing to cut Manafort a deal, it doesn't necessarily mean Manafort walks.
6/ Manafort is a legitimate "final" target for Mueller. He'll be flipped only if Mueller truly *needs* him to secure indictment(s) against a higher-up, i.e. Trump (as Pence is for now in the clear). If Mueller can get where he needs to go with Gates but without Manafort, he will.
