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Seth Abramson @SethAbramson
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Don't listen to the White House on what the Gates deal means. Don't listen to pundits who say Gates can only provide information on the Manafort case. Gates would be given a deal because of what he knows about the Russia investigation. Remember he helped change the GOP platform.
2/ Understand, too, that co-conspirators naturally share information about criminal activities. Gates is a long-time Manafort co-conspirator, as the indictments against him allege. That means he knows many Manafort secrets, including any Russia-related ones. This is a big deal.
3/ As was the case in the Papadopoulos/Flynn deals, Mueller will keep his cards close to the vest in any statement of the facts attached to a Gates plea. The White House will falsely say this is evidence Gates provided no Russia information. Discard such statements out-of-hand.
4/ Don't assume that the sole or even primary purpose of flipping Gates is flipping Manafort (with the aim of eventually prosecuting Trump post-impeachment). If Gates knows what Manafort does, Manafort stays a target and Gates is used in prosecutions of both Manafort *and* Trump.
5/ That said, of course Manafort feels pressure on learning his deputy/co-conspirator is entering into an agreement with Mueller. But Manafort feeling pressure may *not* be Mueller's aim. And even if he's willing to cut Manafort a deal, it doesn't necessarily mean Manafort walks.
6/ Manafort is a legitimate "final" target for Mueller. He'll be flipped only if Mueller truly *needs* him to secure indictment(s) against a higher-up, i.e. Trump (as Pence is for now in the clear). If Mueller can get where he needs to go with Gates but without Manafort, he will.
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