Payrolls rose a whopping 313k in February. What a month!
Unemployment remains constant at 4.1% (remember, it’s measured in a different survey).
Unemployment remains constant at 4.1% (remember, it’s measured in a different survey).
December payrolls revised up from +160k to +175k, and January revised from +200k to +239k.
Over the past three months, payrolls growth has averaged a stonking +242k.
Over the past three months, payrolls growth has averaged a stonking +242k.
Average hourly earnings have risen at only 2.6% over the past year. As for that rise in wage growth, annualized rate over the past two months remains restrained at 2.5%.
In the household survey, employment grew by a *massive* +785k.
Using my preferred 80/20 rule, employment grew by a massive .2*785+.8*311 = 405k in February!
Using my preferred 80/20 rule, employment grew by a massive .2*785+.8*311 = 405k in February!
However you slice it, this is just an extraordinarily strong jobs report:
1. Huge payrolls growth
2. Positive revisions
3. Even bigger job growth in household survey.
Also, some growth in the workweek, which can suggest capacity constraints, but wage growth remains restrained
1. Huge payrolls growth
2. Positive revisions
3. Even bigger job growth in household survey.
Also, some growth in the workweek, which can suggest capacity constraints, but wage growth remains restrained
And it’s a puzzler for the Fed.
With job growth this strong and unemployment this low, it’s hard not to agree that they should be concerned about inflation.
...but wage growth remains so weak that it suggests inflation will stay well below target.
With job growth this strong and unemployment this low, it’s hard not to agree that they should be concerned about inflation.
...but wage growth remains so weak that it suggests inflation will stay well below target.
You know what this economy really doesn’t need?
A massive fiscal stimulus over the next few years.
A massive fiscal stimulus over the next few years.
