Payrolls rose 250k in October, and unemployment was unchanged at a very low 3.7%.
Revisions to the past months were offsetting.
All told, the labor market keeps expanding at a robust pace. Indeed, jobs growth this rapid with unemployment this low might be hard to sustain.
Revisions to the past months were offsetting.
All told, the labor market keeps expanding at a robust pace. Indeed, jobs growth this rapid with unemployment this low might be hard to sustain.
Average hourly earnings rose 3.1% over the past year. But don't be misled by that number, because it's comparing this month's earnings with an unusually low month a year ago. Still, earnings growth is creeping up.
The household survey shows a huge +600k jobs created last month.
So weighting the payroll survey (+250k) and the household survey (+600k) using my 80/20 weights, suggests underlying growth of +320k jobs.
So weighting the payroll survey (+250k) and the household survey (+600k) using my 80/20 weights, suggests underlying growth of +320k jobs.
Perhaps the simplest way to smooth out the monthly noise from these jobs data is to look at average job growth over the past three months, which is running at a very healthy +218k. (October was excellent, September disappointing, and August was gangbusters.)
Lemme state the obvious: This is not an economy that needs the fiscal stimulus that it's currently getting. Today's fiscal boost supporting an already-strong economy spends dollars that might be better put away to save an ailing one.
These are also jobs numbers that'll reinforce the arguments of the folks at the Fed determined to follow through on their plan to gradually normalize interest rates. (And a hawk might say that it's evidence they need to do so relatively quickly.)
If we must view all economic data through a political lens: It's hard to remember a political party entering an election with the economic wind at their back as much as the Republicans currently have. It makes the anti-Republican sentiment in current polls all the more striking.
And if you're boasting about the strength of the economy, you're probably also admitting that it could absorb greater numbers of immigrants with little or no disruption.
Here's what didn't drive the strong economy: The President hasn't saved coal jobs.
Here's what else isn't driving the economy: The President hasn't reduced the trade deficit, and billions of dollars of targeted tariffs haven't reduced the deficit with China.
You're going to get hit with a blizzard of claims that job growth sped up under Trump. So arm yourself with the facts: It didn't.
Average monthly job growth:
For 2017 and 2018 (so far): +196k
But what rate was job growth running at prior to this?
For 2015 and 2016: +211k
Average monthly job growth:
For 2017 and 2018 (so far): +196k
But what rate was job growth running at prior to this?
For 2015 and 2016: +211k
Maintaining rapid job growth this late in the cycle is a pretty impressive outcome. And so our economic performance in 2017 and 2018 really is very good.
But the claim that job growth has risen is a lie, and he knows this because he has a team of economists telling him this.
But the claim that job growth has risen is a lie, and he knows this because he has a team of economists telling him this.
And @ernietedeschi is ready to declare that the labor market has recovered following the Great Recession...
Finally, because this is a pre-election data point, let me offer the obvious implication: It supports everything I've ever said about economics or politics and proves that those who disagree with me are not only wrong, but dangerously wrong. On every single issue.
