[Traders doing other types of trading might also find this useful.]
1./ Your own mind is the starting point of all things. All that you truly know is what is within you. That is all you have access to.
For everything we understand and make judgments about are only reflections of us.
Prediction is an estimation of what is possible given a certain set of observed conditions.
Again, prediction is only an estimation, informed or otherwise, and it exists on a continuum, from low probability to high probability.
And above all, you can become good at taking advantage of those predictions.