Thread by @yvanbyeajee

THE ROLE OF SELF-KNOWLEDGE IN DISCRETIONARY TRADING —A THREAD.

[Traders doing other types of trading might also find this useful.]

1./ Your own mind is the starting point of all things. All that you truly know is what is within you. That is all you have access to.

2./ So, you can only understand others and things that are outside of yourself insofar as you understand yourself.

For everything we understand and make judgments about are only reflections of us.

3./ In other words, you can only see, like, or dislike something (in a person or thing) that you see, like, or dislike somewhere within yourself first (in some facet or another.)

4./ In the same way, to understand others and be able to predict their behavior (collectively), you need to understand yourself first.

5./ The herd mentality is a contagious phenomenon. To prevent it from sneaking up on you, it's useful to train yourself to read, understand, and manage skilfully your own emotions and urges.

6./ In improving your ability to read and predict your own potential urges, you can then finetune your ability to predict others’ collective behavior too.

Prediction is an estimation of what is possible given a certain set of observed conditions.

7./ By no means does prediction mean or imply 'a sure thing.' That's the mistake many traders make.

Again, prediction is only an estimation, informed or otherwise, and it exists on a continuum, from low probability to high probability.

END./ With self-knowledge, you can become good at making predictions that have higher odds of success.

And above all, you can become good at taking advantage of those predictions.