Thread by @exoticgamora

#TuesdayThoughts

Question: Is the economy any better since trump?

Fact Checked: No, it's about the same as last 2 years of Obama's term

1. The economy today is virtually indistinguishable from the economy several years before Trump took office, as measured by economic growth

Gross domestic product continues to increase at a modest but steady rate, per the Bureau of Economic Analysis. First quarter of this year, it grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent; last year it also grew at 2.3 percent - roughly what growth averaged during Obama’s second term.

2. What about hiring? Haven’t we seen a big boom there?

Nope. The pace of hiring has been decent, but again, not better than it was under Obama.

Since Trump, non-farm payrolls have expanded by an average of 186,000 jobs per month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Obama’s 2nd term averaged nearly 216,000 per month. In Obama’s final year, it was 195,000

Unemployment rate has been falling, but that decline also began early in Obama’s presidency and has more recently leveled off. We’re 9 years into one of the longest recoveries on record

3. Wages have been going up though, right?

Wage growth has disappointed under Trump, as it did under Obama. Adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings grew little over past year, up just 0.4 percent in March compared to a year earlier.

After GOP tax cut passed, lots of companies announced plans to use their windfall to boost worker pay. So far, we haven’t seen that in overall data. Many firms were probably planning to raise pay anyway, as they had before, credited Trump’s tax cut to curry white house favor

4. What about federal deficits and debt?

Federal deficits as a share of the economy did grow a lot under Obama, at first. That was largely because we had a major financial crisis. Tax revenue fell dramatically. Meanwhile, federal spending rose, thanks both to automatic outlays

(e.g., more people became eligible for unemployment benefits) and deliberate stimulus measures. Additionally, boomers began aging into entitlement eligibility, and Obama extended the Bush tax cuts.

As the economy improved, those deficits shrank but did not go away.

In fiscal 2016 they began expanding again, and now under Trump, they've exploded, despite there being neither a recession nor a major war. That is due to both tax cuts and spending increases.

CBO projects our debt-to-GDP ratio soon will be at its highest level since 1946.

5. Tax cuts just passed. Isn’t it unfair to judge Trump’s economic track record until those have been factored into the economy?

That’s true: We haven’t seen the impact of the tax cuts yet. But their salutary effects are likely to be modest and short-lived, for a few reasons.

So far, consumers mostly haven’t noticed tax cuts.
The biggest beneficiaries are the wealthiest Americans, who are less likely to spend their tax savings. The best hope for GDP, jobs and wage growth comes from the corporate-side cuts, which could increase investment over time.

Effects are expected to be small. Respected Penn Wharton Budget Model, projects the tax cuts will raise annual GDP growth by 0.06 to 0.12 percentage points over next decade. An aging population, rising federal debt and Trump’s threats of a trade war present significant head winds

All of which is to say: Don’t hold your breath for that 4 percent to 6 percent GDP growth that Trump promised.

6. So, how much influence do presidents have over the economy? Not much

Bingo. Presidents get too much blame when economy sours and too much credit when it improves

Not that you’d know from Trump. He claims economy is great and it's all due to him

Fact checked: just not true

Source: washingtonpost.com/opinions/6-que…