*New thread* Is Iran violating its agreements? What new information has been revealed in the Iranian atomic archive?
Do these revelations show that Iran has violated its agreements? Perhaps so, but this needs more study by US and allied governments. 1/
On JCPOA, look at Section T. Hard to see how maintenance of Iranian archive, which Israel says is part of on-going nuclear weapons stewardship program, is consistent with Iran not engaging in activities which could contribute to the development of a nuclear explosive device. 2/
Similarly, it is difficult to see how this isn’t a violation of maintaining an exclusively peaceful nuclear program (see Preface of JCPOA). Doesn’t this add credence to those that say Iran is violating the JCPOA? 3/
On Iran’s compliance with its safeguards agreement, the new uranium metallurgy information may be key to follow up on. 4/
On reaching a broader conclusion under the AP, the IAEA’s work just got more urgent. Israel says the documents contain “order of magnitude” more information than before; there is much the IAEA does not have. 5/
On PMD issues, the IAEA needs to re-look at its investigation, and by the way, disclose publicly once and for all its summer 2015 work plan. 6/
With regard to the NPT, this Iranian nuclear archive is not in the spirit of this key treaty. 7/
Regardless of whether the JCPOA survives in the near term, the IAEA will need to pursue the new information in the context of the NPT and Iran’s comprehensive safeguards agreement. 8/
***New insights from the information*** Includes ability to prove the existence of the AMAD program at a much greater level of detail, including Iran’s plans for further nuclear weapons-related development after the end of the AMAD program, which occurred in 2003 or 2004. 9/
Explicit plan going forward after the AMAD program ended to enable a future "reincarnation" of the nuclear weapons program. Dozens of documents uncovered that show this process or implied intent to reconstitute the nuclear weapons program. 10/
New documents show the nuclear weapons program was much broader and more robust than previously thought in terms of the number of tests, the number of production facilities, and number of calculations and simulations. 11/
There are dozens of photos of equipment being used in Iran for the development of nuclear weapons, much more equipment than previously thought. Where is all this equipment today? Is it covered by Section T but not declared by Iran? 12/
AMAD program and follow up, as mentioned above, had guidance from Iran’s top leadership. 13/
This includes after the end of the AMAD program, to make sure that all nuclear weapons knowledge was preserved, gaps in knowledge or unfinished developments identified, and efforts launched to fill in the gaps or complete the tasks under good cover stories. 14/
Not all unfinished projects could be pursued, such as finding and building an underground nuclear test site. There is no adequate cover story for such an endeavor. 15/
New information on number of weapons sought, kilotons sought, nuclear test sites considered. 16/
Israel says that Iran today continues to fill in the gaps, under good cover stories. To Israel, Iran is planning to keep the option of building nuclear weapons. 17/
The United States and the IAEA did not know all of this information by any means. 18/
The IAEA should be showing its seriousness regarding this information considering that its weak PMD investigation helped shape these recent events. Instead, we have this lackluster statement. 19/ iaea.org/newscenter/pre…
We hope the IAEA takes the revelation of the atomic archive seriously. We also hope that certain countries and purported experts stop claiming this information is not new, essentially defending Iran in maintaining it. 20/20
