Thread by @andrewsweiss

THREAD Why is Putin intervening in #Venezuela in such a flamboyant and provocative fashion? The Kremlin’s game in Latin America is mainly about geopolitics, payback, and cold hard cash. #GlobalRussia 1/

As explained in this very fine paper by Julia Gurganus, fmr National Intelligence Officer for Russia/Eurasia, “Capitalizing on opportunities to gain a foothold in Latin America is a familiar strategy for Russia”
carnegieendowment.org/2018/05/03/rus… 2/

Here’s how General John Kelly, then-commander of US Southern Command, described the Russian approach in March 2015 3/

A big part of what motivates the Kremlin is payback for what it sees as US encroachment in Russia’s immediate backyard in places like Ukraine, Georgia and Central Asia. 4/

The other big issue is money and the hijacking of Russian foreign policy for the personal agendas of senior Kremlin figures, as my Moscow-based colleague @AlexGabuev explained in the FT recently ft.com/content/0e9618… 5/

Igor Sechin, the head of Russia’s national oil company (AKA Putin’s closest adviser), has plowed billions into Venezuela. Back in 2008 he got Kremlin-friendly govts in LatAm to recognize Russia’s carving up of Georgia and to establish ties w Abkhazia and South Ossetia 6/

Sechin blandished billions in loans to Venezuela in return for that geopolitical favor. As the Venezuelan economy unraveled, it couldn’t make its payments on these loans so Rosneft arranged stakes in additional oil/gas fields on very favorable terms and other sweetheart deals 7/

Russia eventually became Venezuela’s lender of last resort, an arrangement that I wrote about here with @MoisesNaim washingtonpost.com/news/global-op… 8/

The downward spiral created an opening for Putin, an inveterate opportunist. He simply couldn’t pass up an opportunity to show that Trump’s bombastic rhetoric about possible military intervention in Venezuela was largely empty talk nytimes.com/2017/08/12/wor… 9/

The Russians have now doubled down on their support for Maduro, flying in a small number of military personnel in broad daylight at Caracas’s main international airport. 10/

Such provocative moves are giving the Maduro regime a much-needed shot in the arm and cover in the UN Security Council where the Kremlin is protecting it from the impressive international coalition that the Trump administration has cobbled together. 11/

Sadly US tools for forcing out the Russians are pretty limited. Pompeo/Bolton repeatedly dangle the threat of add'l sanctions but haven’t acted. The biggest victims are likely to be the long-suffering people of Venezuela--& Trump’s undiminished hopes for a new reset w Putin END