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So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
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