Thread by @GttgTrades

Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵

When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend:

But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB:

While I was trying to convince friends that rates could rise far faster than bankers were willing to admit (or even warn about), I was often met with skepticism.

Usually from friends with Adjustable-Rate Mortgages.

2018 chats about the infallibility 🙄of central bankers:

April 11th, 2018:
Laying out my theory of what would unfold over the coming years.

Getting the catalyst wrong (pandemic ended up being the match), I perfectly predicted everything we are currently experiencing with #bearmarket in #bonds, #USA then #ECB raising #interestrates:

June 11, 2018:
"Then the question becomes - is the #ECB wrong? Will #inflation surpass 2%? What if they fail?"

Talking about buying ridiculously cheap #Euribor puts.

March 18th, 2020:
Reentering a small #eurodollar puts position due to #COVID, seeing it as a potential catalyst to unleash the long-anticipated chaos.

June 14th, 2020:

"Positioning to be lucky, not to be right", needing patience before #inflation/#bond #bearmarket will move after a slow creep in #yield, 2nd and 3rd order consequences of #covid stims, #FederalReserve balance sheet bloat, unprofitable tech cos, debt levels, etc:

Finally got myself a Twitter account in early 2021, and started occasionally posting a little on #inflation, rising #yields, #bondmarket hiccups, and the coming explosion in #interestrates where #Centralbanks are not to be trusted when they speak.

Archive of relevant tweets:

Feb 25th, 2021:

"#Eurodollar & #Euribor long-dated ATM puts until 2022-23."



I've rolled over expirations, but the Dec 2023 Eurodollar put is up almost 7000% since then.

With 1000% realized, I'm up 2900% as of today, June 2024 expiry.

March 13th, 2021:

"Like *absolutely everyone else*, I'm 100% certain it will stop exactly at 2% - no risk at all of it going above."

Were you still worshipping at the altar of #JPow?

More:

I've seen the writing on the wall since we responded to 08 with the historical anomaly of artificially suppressed low-interest rates, globally.

Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."

Did I sit on the sidelines for a decade? No.

Scroll on.

Before anyone accuses me, I did not skip out on the biggest bull market in history.

I just acknowledged it for what it was all along, a bubble caused by unrealistically low-interest rates.

Meanwhile, I told my friends about #uranium and pre-meme #gme back in April, 2020:

Now, I'm the guy that will be wrong 80% of the time.

But I'm also the guy that will make 10x, 100x, 1000x my money back when I'm right.

In other words, I suffer no delusions that I will be correct about every prediction I make. Hell, most of the time, they are "what ifs".

The future has an infinite amount of possible outcomes, so to believe you can somehow predict it consistently is a major mistake.

Thus, I don't trade with the intention of being right, but to be lucky.

Like Seneca said,
“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

If you like the "what if", the mean reversion, the psychology of crowds, the folly of experts, the wild gambles, and constantly bleeding funds chasing that wild dragon...

Well, I could be wrong (probably am), but you might want to hit follow if so.

Thanks for reading! 🫳🎤

Obligatory disclaimer:

Started warning about the multi-decade bull market in #bonds entering truly dodgy territory 6 years ago, AND only missed the top by a mere 15 days when I moved against it. 😎👍

I don't even charge a fee. I'll make my money in the markets instead. 😉