David Davis and Boris Johnson showed this week how divided the Cabinet is on key Brexit issues.
Our latest @instituteforgov paper shows what those politic divisions mean for Brexit preparations 1/
Our latest @instituteforgov paper shows what those politic divisions mean for Brexit preparations 1/
Negotiators are hamstrung. The focus on getting agreement in corridors of Whitehall and around the cabinet table means the UK has lost critical opportunities for influencing in Brussels and European capitals.
The UK is arguing with itself when it should be making its case to EU
The UK is arguing with itself when it should be making its case to EU
It also means we have a sketchy vision of future relationship, with a very fragile cabinet consensus
Negotiators will need to make concessions in talks. Not clear if there is that space to move. If every deviation has to go thru cabinet, talks will move too slowly
Negotiators will need to make concessions in talks. Not clear if there is that space to move. If every deviation has to go thru cabinet, talks will move too slowly
But the biggest problem caused by these divisions is secrecy. And the effect that is having on those preparing the UK for life outside the EU.
External secrecy is one thing, but information flow inside the system is hamstrung by paranoia.
External secrecy is one thing, but information flow inside the system is hamstrung by paranoia.
Key documents - including basic planning guidance - are being locked away in a small number of rooms.
Teams working up plans - that we are spending £1.5bn on this year alone - aren't able to properly access the key information they need
Teams working up plans - that we are spending £1.5bn on this year alone - aren't able to properly access the key information they need
This secrecy has gone to the point where secure computer terminals are being rolled out across Whitehall for secret documents.
It also means a huge surge in security vetting of civil servants. In some cases that takes up to 9 months to complete...
It also means a huge surge in security vetting of civil servants. In some cases that takes up to 9 months to complete...
Brexit is a massive co-ordination exercise. You can't co-ordinate effectively if information can't flow.
This isn't about a small number of senior civil servants, advisers and ministers coming up with policy options. It's about thousands of people.
This isn't about a small number of senior civil servants, advisers and ministers coming up with policy options. It's about thousands of people.
Look at all of the organisations involved in the border. All need to be ready. All need to be planning on the same basis. All need to be ready 
Ministers have different views on what Brexit should look like. From what 'no deal' would mean in practice to what the UK's preferred outcome is.
That means there's real concerns that cross-cutting plans don't add up.
That means there's real concerns that cross-cutting plans don't add up.
Our paper looks in detail at these and other challenges - getting the right people (and keeping them), engaging externally - and then asks whether we will be ready
In short - Whitehall will be ready for something.
But if we are talking about Dec 2020 or March 2019, it's not going to be enough time to do everything necessary.
But if we are talking about Dec 2020 or March 2019, it's not going to be enough time to do everything necessary.
A 21-month transition is vital, but it isn't sufficient for doing everything.
Even negotiating the detail of the deal will be a huge challenge based on precedent.
Even negotiating the detail of the deal will be a huge challenge based on precedent.
The challenge is even greater on implementation.
You don't develop world class regulators in 21 months. You don't design, build and implement huge new systems in less than two years.
You don't develop world class regulators in 21 months. You don't design, build and implement huge new systems in less than two years.
So ministers face a choice - a messy Brexit in 2020 or buying more time.
