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Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag
, 10 tweets, 13 min read Read on Twitter
New podcast club: the 1xers.

1xers can't or shouldn't be listened to at higher speeds. In reverse chronological order:

1/ Michael Recce: investorfieldguide.com/reece/
2/ @albertwenger: World After Capital

investorfieldguide.com/wenger/
@albertwenger 3/ @SavneetS : the Berkshire of Software

investorfieldguide.com/savneet/
@albertwenger @SavneetS 4/ @wolfejosh: This Is Who You Are Up Against

investorfieldguide.com/wolfe/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh 5/ @AliBHamed Creative Investing

investorfieldguide.com/ali/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh @AliBHamed 6/ @cdixon The Future of Tech

investorfieldguide.com/dixon/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh @AliBHamed @cdixon 7/ @waitbutwhy Grand Theft Life

investorfieldguide.com/urban/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh @AliBHamed @cdixon @waitbutwhy 8/ @ganeumann the Deployment Age

investorfieldguide.com/jerry/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh @AliBHamed @cdixon @waitbutwhy @ganeumann 9/ @mjmauboussin Man + Machine, Moats, and the Outside view

investorfieldguide.com/michael/
@albertwenger @SavneetS @wolfejosh @AliBHamed @cdixon @waitbutwhy @ganeumann @mjmauboussin 10/ @chenholdco Trish and James Higgins - Permanent Equity

investorfieldguide.com/chenmark/
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More from @patrick_oshag see all

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1/ Thoughts and questions on debt...

We screen to avoid companies with worrisome leverage and over-reliance on capital markets, so @Jesse_Livermore and I have been discussing the current state of corporate debt. We see lots of worrisome looking charts like this:
@Jesse_Livermore 2/ But these measures leave out a key source of income for U.S. corporations: income from foreign operations, which has grown dramatically over the past twenty years. When we compare debt to measures of sales and income that include foreign sources, we get:
@Jesse_Livermore 3/ We can confirm this observation (which we built from the bottom up using company level data) by comparing the aggregate debt of U.S. non-financial corporations to their aggregate net worth (equity), a measure that more accurately reflects their total paying power:
Read 8 tweets
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Fav books of ‘18

- Factfulness by @HansRosling
- 7 Powers by @hamiltonhelmer
- Luxury Strategy by Kapferer
- Ficciones by Borges
- Who Is Michael Ovitz by @MichaelOvitz
- The Stranger in the Woods by @MikeFinkel
- Tomorrow 3.0 by @mungowitz
- Pitch Anything by @pitchanything
- Capitalism Without Capital by Haskel and Westlake
- Creative Selection by Kocienda
- Wild Company by the Zieglers
- How to Change Your Mind by @michaelpollan
One more:

- upside of stress by @kellymcgonigal
Read 3 tweets
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1/ Value strategies—which buy into stocks with low expectations—can be like IBM or like Apple.

When expectations are exceeded, as has been the case with Apple, you earn great returns. When expectations weren’t low enough, you get IBM

For both, future fundamentals drive results.
2/ With a crystal ball, a value investor could drastically improve their results. Among value stocks, returns diverge when sorted on good and bad future fundamentals (EPS growth).

Bad expectations + good results > bad expectations + bad results
3/ As blindingly obvious as this is, its helpful to see just how much of an impact future fundamentals have on value stocks.

Here we parse value stocks into groups based on their *forward* EPS growth. The spreads at the bottom are massive.
Read 16 tweets

Related threads

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1/ We’re working on new ways to give you more control over your timeline. But first, some context: Twitter helps you see what’s happening by showing the best Tweets for you based on your interactions.
blog.twitter.com/official/en_us…
2/ We’ve learned that when showing the best Tweets first, people find Twitter more relevant and useful. However, we've heard feedback from people who at times prefer to see the most recent Tweets.
3/ Our goal with the timeline is to balance showing you the most recent Tweets with the best Tweets you’re likely to care about, but we don’t always get this balance right.
Read 6 tweets
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List of all my Presidential Threads in reverse chronological order
Trump....the nightmare never ends

The Obama Years: All Hope and No Change

Read 7 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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.@UniversitiesUK sometimes endorses RPI as the right measure of inflation for the purposes of pay negotiations. They do so when the MASK SLIPS and they publicly proclaim the success of their 'human resource strategies' of keeping pay increases below inflation! 1/
In the linked Feb 2015 report “Efficiency, effectiveness and value for money”, @UniversitiesUK actually BOAST that they have delivered value for money by keeping uplifts in the salary spine significantly below RPI inflation since 2009. They write: 2/

universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-ana…
"As with much of the UK labour force, pay restraint has been a feature of human resource strategies since 2009. Awards relating to the uplift of the New JNCHES33 single pay spine … have been significantly below the level of inflation over the period." 3/
Read 9 tweets
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This is a Thread of Threads, to keep track of what I have written on the #USS pensions issue, particularly focussing on the dodgy September survey by UUK, and the role of Cambridge and Oxford.

In reverse chronological order:
1. On FoI documents showing that Cambridge college bursars "colluded" to give *the same* response to the survey.
2. On Cambridge bursars & their backgrounds in finance:
Read 20 tweets
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I have full Domaintools domain reports that authoritatively substantiate this information. I archived the whole site and watched them turn on WHOIS privacy after the fact. They know they screwed up. Screenshots below.
Read 17 tweets

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