Thread by @walnutavevalue

Just finished reading Thinking in Bets by @AnnieDuke. Key points relevant to investing:
A. History is not inevitable. Similar to @nnataleb 's Alternative histories concept - Look at history as only surviving branch of a tree, and low chance branch might survive /1

B. Avoid looking at only results (Resulting) to decide if investment decision was correct or not. In boom years, all decisions can look skillful, but its most likely luck.

C. Pre-mortem: consider everything that go wrong (similar to don't lose money) before investing. /2

D. Backcasting: Work backwards from the results you want to achieve to see what will take you there. And do expected value analysis on all the scenarios (This reminded me of the expected value analysis in @MohnishPabrai 's excellent Dhando investor book) /3

E. Ulysses contract to raise barrier against irrationality: Make a precommitment on what decision to take if price goes up or down by certain %. Avoid certain news sites (Eg: Zerohedge / permabears)

F. "Its all just one long poker game" /4

G. Delay decisions when there's emotional tilt (tilt = blowing recent event out of proportion, especially bad outcomes, leading to emotional decision making)

H. Our visions of the future is rooted in our memories of the past (hence backcasting is better than working forward) /5

I. Key to improving decision making is to field the outcomes to luck or skill (or combination) without resulting. /6