1/ Brexiters have boxed themselves in with the EU withdrawal bill
2/ Why so?
3/ The bill which has now passed includes a version of the Patten amendment which commits to no new physical border infrastructure in Ireland or customs or regulatory checks unless agreed between the UK and the EU publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/lbill…
4/ A no deal scenario would not comply with the Patten amendment (nor the December Joint report).
5/ So regardless of whether or not the statement made yesterday that there could/ would be a meaningful vote if there is no deal is correct Parliament will need to approve a no deal scenario as it would run counter to the withdrawal act.
6/ So Parliament could control what happens next if there is no deal and the minimum would have to be a customs union and single market participation
7/ May seems to want to be in the single market for goods but that comes with capital, services and people. The 4 freedoms are indivisible and will remain so
8/ The alternative is that somehow a no deal is allowed to pass by Parliament or by the Government behaving like the shits they are
9/ Which leads to food, fuel and medicine shortages and civil unrest
10/ Which leads to the end of the hard Brexit dream assuming the EU is prepared to expedite the UK’s reentry into the EU or an associate agreement that covers a customs union and single market participation (but likely on costly terms)
11/ So it is in Brexiters’ interests to make sure a deal is agreed before we leave.
They won’t say that but that is the choice they face.
They won’t say that but that is the choice they face.
