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Faisal Islam @faisalislam
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons - facing down the (a?) customs union rebels... rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today
So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost Customs and Trade Bills...
It’s getting very serious. & presumably this occurs against backdrop of Cabinet debates, the white paper, & ahead of EU Summit
As I said yesterday, some customs union rebels are baffled by this, suggest that Government may be using Commons as a means to settle Cabinet customs argument... an ERG member tell me if customs union amendments get voted thru PM might have to accept need to go to country...
That might be overdoing it a bit - but stakes are very very high... as a leading Tory rebel told me yesterday “the crunch is coming”
Also we’re hearing that it’s all the Brexit Bills - including the Trade and Customs Bills, which already include double figures Tory rebels as Amendment signatories ... not just EU Withdrawal Bill Lords Amendments - confirmation from Leadsom tomorrow
ERG Brexiter Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen hints at General Election tells me Tory MP rebels that vote against the Government in coming Withdrawal Bill votes will be “named and shamed” and held to account by their constituents and “ultimately it might be sooner than they think”
And here an incredible intervention, the chief of HMRC telling MPs that the BorisJ/Brexiter favoured customs option being studied by Cabinet could cost businesses £17bn to £20bn a year, essentially in new business frictions and red tape. He would be responsible for implementing:
Now being told that it won’t be in officially announced business this morning for first week of June... but MPs were told to prepare for it easily-mid June
Indeed no Lords Brexit amendments in the first week back ...
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More from @faisalislam see all

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Interesting - maybe too late. Labour MPs astonished No 10 failed to consult with unions too. Also one told her directly that her talking up of No Deal as a viable option was making things difficult. Ie they need her to say publicly that No Deal is a disastrous non option...tricky
Labour sources briefing against: “We will look at any proposal that is put forward to improve T May’s bad deal.

“However, amendment would mean MPs supporting deal based on promises that are not legally binding. also doesn’t guarantee UK won’t fall behind on important rights”
“Protection of rights is also one element of this deal. The government has still refused to listen to Labour’s demands for a permanent customs union and a strong single market deal.” Says Labour source...
Read 3 tweets
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Another ticking No Deal time bomb -Lords Grand committee supposed to take 4 hours to deal with 10 Brexit Statutory instruments - Got through just 3 on stem cells, embryology etc, all referred up to full House of Lords.

Hundreds more required to be passed to correct statute book
Some Govt sources suggesting there is a filibustering game going on here - Lords strenuously deny - todays committee included Lord Winston, Warner, Foulkes, Adonis etc, say it is scrutiny legislated for in Withdrawal Bill.

In any event, cant see how they get through all the SIs
Here’s the committee taking on the minister who was trying to get 10 SIs through today... parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/8a…
Read 4 tweets
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Very good story about Brexit consultancy contracts from @AdamParsons1 and @TomBoadle

My understanding was BCG and Mckinseys ones were to work up rejected plans for New Customs Partnership and Max Fac to test them with very sceptical manufacturers (under gagging clauses ofc)...
Essentially, the Government paying many millions to external consultants to tell them it was going to take years to prepare customs etc, but also trying to square circle of its own red lines on Brexit with keeping frictionless trade.
Plenty of people were telling the Government, often under NDA, for free, that such plans were unworkable...
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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1) who are the stupid #Brexit people John?
A regular device from brexiters is to say that #PeoplesVote supporters think Leave voters were stupid

It's true that there were very many incredibly, boneshakingly dense Brexiters, but they were leading, not following

Some examples
2) Melanie Philips is a regular pro #Brexit columnist, arguing for a tough line on the EU.

This is her finding out *only last night* that we represent 10% of the EUs total exports compared to 45% of ours going to the EU

Her confused look is remarkable

3) David Davis, Brexit secretary and former EU minister, believed *even after the referendum* that we could strike illegal individual deals with Germany, France etc, something utterly forbidden under EU law

This was the basis of his Leave position
Read 17 tweets
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So, as Mr Farage @nigel_farage said, this leaflet popped through our doors before the Referendum at a cost of £9M, This is probably the only research most people did, it was certainly true for me. Like most people, I took the EU for granted, it was just, there.

1/11
It was the most important decision of our lives, the government made it clear that we already control our own borders and there would be tough new restrictions on access to our welfare system for new EU migrants. The government was clear we should stay in the EU.

2/11
This is the first mention of leaving the Single Market, not that 'we will' as Farage keeps saying, but leaving will create uncertainty & risk. The government made it clear being in the Single Market means more jobs which rather disagrees with Mr Corbyn's Jobs First #Brexit

3/11
Read 11 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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This is the Customs station at Svinesund, the main border crossing between 🇳🇴 and 🇸🇪 . It can handle up to 2,500 trucks/day - one truck every 4 min. 10,000 trucks go through Dover every day. Do the maths. It’s not possible. 🇳🇴 is in #SingleMarket but not in #CustomsUnion
But this should also give remainers some hope. I don’t think it will be possible for UK to leave both #CustomsUnion union and #SingleMarket - UK is not in #Schengen - Norway is in both Schengen and SM which makes trade easier, even if there’s a hard border between 🇸🇪and 🇳🇴
Then there’s the Irish Border of course. Again not possible to have a soft border between NI and ROI if UK leaves Single market and Customs Union. Even an EEA, Norway, solution would require a hard border here. Brexit is stupid!
Read 11 tweets

Trending hashtags

#brexit #PeoplesVote #Brexit #Schengen #Labour #UKTrade #BrexitShambles #CustomsUnion #StopBrexit #Ireland #GTTO #SingleMarket #Remain #TheresaMay #EUWithdrawalBill #EUCO #JC4PM #EUWithrawalBill

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