May 2004, @wired asks “what will the retirement age be in 20 years?” Answers range from 67 to 75. Futurist Peter Schwartz argues “Our children will look forward to a life measured in centuries, and current notions of retirement will have to change drastically.” #wiredarchive 
Today, 14 years later, I think there’s a chance that the retirement age will be raised to 75, and/or social security will be abolished.
But we’re done pretending that we are on the verge of a major breakthrough in life extension, right?
(2/x)
But we’re done pretending that we are on the verge of a major breakthrough in life extension, right?
(2/x)
I’m intensely curious to see how the tone of futurist predictions, both in @Wired and elsewhere, have changed post-2016.
My hunch is that it has become more difficult to pretend that politics and power aren’t central determinants.
(3/x)
My hunch is that it has become more difficult to pretend that politics and power aren’t central determinants.
(3/x)
If the retirement age is 75 in 2024, does anyone really doubt that it’ll be because social security was thrashed to support another round of tax cuts?
Even if there are medical breakthroughs, is anyone going to pretend that they’ll be evenly distributed through society? (4/x)
Even if there are medical breakthroughs, is anyone going to pretend that they’ll be evenly distributed through society? (4/x)
The answer *might* be that the futurists remain oriented to the 20-50 year time horizon, allowing them to ignore current political and power structures.
But even if they are, I wonder how today’s social changes are impacting their forecasts. (Fin)
But even if they are, I wonder how today’s social changes are impacting their forecasts. (Fin)
