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Chris McCrudden @cmccrudden
, 16 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
Okay! I'm an author (1st novel out in September), I used to work in publishing, I'm a @Soc_of_Authors member.

I've thought long and hard about this problem and I disagree with both the SoA and publishers' positions on it.

Here's why...

societyofauthors.org/News/News/2018…
Author earnings fall every year (they've never been high), and large publishers' profitabilities are stable or growing (slowly).

But it isn't because publishers are swindling authors. It's because the book industry is in long-term structural decline.
Late last year I did this analysis of a fine report by @canelo_co on the state of literary fiction.

This is what fiction book sales between 2001 & 2016 look like.

So because...

📉book sales are shrinking year on year
👴and publishing is a conservative business

Big publishers have adopted a defensive, conservative strategy to running their businesses
What this means for authors is that big publishers are defending their current model of payment, which prioritises author advances

WITH THEIR LIVES.

And this, I argue, props up a system that's outlived its usefulness and delivers diminishing returns to authors.
Let's use Karl Ove Knausgaard as an example.

He's a hot author published by PRH with one runaway hit (by literary standards) on his hands. But this is what book sales for his My Struggle series look like.

His publishers have actively sought to keep Average Selling Prices high (they don't control the retail price, but they can control trade discounts).

So even though Knausgaard's sales get smaller book to book, his publisher makes more from hardback sales.

Why do publishers want to support hardback sales?

Because their current model - pay authors an advance & hope it earns out - is FUNDED by hardback sales.
This isn't a blip either. I ran the same analysis on other series and discovered that major publishers use hardback pricing as a way of putting a reliable 'ceiling' on book sales.

Big publishing today is about covering costs in a market in long-term structural decline.

Trad publishers are just using the levers they have at their disposal:-
💸Advances
📚Book pricing

To protect their businesses.

The trouble is that this model

DOESN'T WORK ANYMORE (especially not for authors).

It was built on foundations (e.g. the NET Book Agreement) that have gone and aren't coming back.
And with all due respect to the SoA, Philip Pullman et al, putting book prices up again will not put the genie back into the bottle.

People aren't suddenly going to buy more books when they're £8.99 again. In fact, they might just watch something on Netflix.
IMO the key to a fairer share of a (let's face it) declining pie for authors is ending the advance system, because:

1. It distorts publishing
2. Big advances are RISKY for both sides
3. Fundamentally author & publisher are in it together
4. I want book still to be here in 2118
The GOOD news is that if you look beyond the big publishers (and tbh I wish publishing commentators would) an alternative future is already here...

Publishers like @canelo_co run under a model where authors keep a far higher % of sales after publishing costs are met.
Also MARKETING.

Big publishers produce too many books. They basically fire a lot of them at the wall and hope one of them sticks.

The reason I chose my publisher @farragobooks is they're great AND they understand things like Facebook advertising, which most publishers DON'T.
In summary...

It's terrible that professional authors earn so little, but they won't earn more under the current system because it doesn't work anymore.

It's time to change the system, because the book business of 30 years ago isn't coming back.
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