Good piece on EPP and Orbán by @PoliticoRyan although he is too forgiving on EPP’s incredible hypocrisy. A few comments. #Thread politico.eu/article/viktor…
1. I honestly don’t see how EPP comes out of EP2019 weaker, except if Macron joins ALDE (big if).
2. S&D will be real loser of EP2019, losing one of its last big parties in big country because of Brexit while many others have recently been decimated.
3. I think @PoliticoRyan (like most) focuses too much on Parliament, while real vulnerability for EPP is Council. They have fewer and fewer PMs.
4. Journalists should push EPP harder on “he mostly comes around” rhetoric. It is empty, at least as far as illiberal democracy in Hungary is concerned - and this should be the main concern!
5. Orbán has barely compromised in terms of domestic politics — main pressure was on economic issues anyway. Even on CEU, which led to most open critique in EPP, he still has not moved!
6. It is clear that EPP sacrifices Hungary’s liberal democracy for its own power within the EU.
7. As Orbán has mostly “compromised” on EU issues. However, almost all of these “issues” were secondary at best, and irrelevant at worst, for him. He just uses them to create credit for illiberal measures at home.
8. When he really cares about something, ie immigration, he doesn’t budge and changes a EPP more than EPP changes him!
9. The threat by Orbán (and his EP lackey) to found a 150-200 MEP “anti-immigrant group” should not be taken at face value.
10. Most attenptsvyo build strong radical right, or even right-wing Eurosceptic group, have been moderately successful at best. At present we have three groups: ECR, EFDD and ENF.
11. These groups are separate for many reasons. Two only survive because of UK party. ENF still has only 5-party basis. EFDD is (among?) least homogeneous in voting.
12. Idea that Orbán could bring all these parties together in well-organized political group is ludicrous.
13. While Orbán is better set than Farage or Le Pen, the group of parties is too diverse, even in their anti-EU and anti-immigration positions.
14. They would mainly come together on their lowest common denominator, ie anti-status quo sentiment. Most already do now, across groups.
15. Leaving aside that Orbán’s domestic power is strongly tied to his EU power (which ensures continued subsidies). If he (finally) loses those, his domestic and EU power weaken significantly.
16. What @PoliticoRyan piece makes clear is, EPP-Orbán is neither about CSU nor about CDA: it is about CDU, and indirectly about German (car) industry. They should be pressured and held responsible.
17. Finally, this is all not just about a little dictator, a small flatly ageing country, or a hypocritical political group. This is about what “values” the EU is a community of! #TheEnd
