Thread by @lindsaypcohn

Here is a thread in response to all the discussions about whether Dems should “go left” or “stay center” for this mid-term.
Caveats: I’m neither a Democrat nor a professional political strategist. I’m a Political Scientist with a decent understanding of elections.
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The argument is between progressives, who want to run candidates like Ocasio-Cortez, and moderates, who worry that leftist candidates will scare off centrist independents and moderate Republicans. So the disagreement is fundamentally about which people the Dems hope to win.
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The 1st assumption of both groups is that Dems lose leftists to 3rd parties and centrists to Republicans (or both to not voting), which is probably true, but ignores that there are a lot of simply apolitical ppl who need something emotional to motivate them.
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The 2nd assumption of both groups is that they have to choose to go after either the leftists or the centrists, and thus their message is zero-sum. I disagree.
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We know about the US voting public:
- self-identified Repubs/“lean Repubs” are significantly more likely to vote than self-identified Dems/“lean Dems”.
- Americans tend to self-identify as conservative, BUT when asked about specific policies, tend to hold more leftist ideas
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Dems have often assumed it’s easier to go after the motivated centrist voter with a policy message than to motivate the politically-uninterested masses. In a fight over centrists, Dems appeal to policy prefs and Repubs appeal to group identity/demonizing outgroup.
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Unfortunately for Dems, appeals to emotion/identity are stronger motivators than pure rational policy appeals, but that doesn’t mean policy doesn’t matter. What Dems need is to combine policy and emotive appeal.
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Just being against Trump is not enough; Dems need to provide an alternative solution to problems. They need an emotionally appealing message offering an alternative to the emotionally appealing message that all problems can be blamed on immigrants and other countries.
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One of the biggest strengths of progressivism vis a vis centrism is that it provides an alternative solution to the problems of large numbers of Americans. It tries to address concerns about health care, job security, inequality, justice reform, education, etc.
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One of its weaknesses is the tendency of a lot of progressives to act like their solution is natural and obvious, and that they shouldn’t have to explain its merits because everyone who’s not a mouth-breather already knows they’re right.
This is neither true nor helpful.
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But if Dems did a better job articulating an alternative, more community-oriented and less radically individualistic vision of society, polling indicates that it would actually resonate with a fairly large number of people.
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Even if it scared off moderate conservatives who couldn’t get behind raising taxes and regulation, there’s a high likelihood such a vision would be more effective in motivating voters than a business-as-usual centrist message.
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SOO, my point is that an intelligent, well-crafted progressive message would probably appeal to the left wing, motivate a large number of non-voters, AND even appeal to some centrists. What it would take is smart, transparent messaging.
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So ditch the Democratic Socialism label. Most Americans don’t know what it means and it’s scary. Also stop talking about making things “free”. Talk about providing things to the whole community.
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People disagree on what to provide, but everyone agrees that some things have to be provided by the community to the community (defense, policing, jury trial, some education, fire/emergency, etc). Let’s talk about what things best serve the community when provided publicly.
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Dems need to put together a bold policy platform. One that explains to people that contributing to the basic needs of all people in society is good for everyone - it lowers crime, improves the economy, keeps families together, etc.
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If you want to know what I think about the election itself, I think all Republicans have to do to win is mobilize their voters by pointing to the SCOTUS vacancy and to the threat that a Dem Congress could slow or block the admin’s deregulation program.
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Dems actually have an uphill battle, and are in danger of losing seriously if they engage in too much infighting.
If you want to know how I think the Republican party gets back to being a center-right party instead of a nativist/deconstructionist party ... no blooming idea.
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