Thread by @femolevsky

Dear sir, @atiku I like your ambition. For some reason, I think between you and @bukolasaraki, you both can transform Nigeria if you get to that office. So I'll do a short thread of all my ideas, as regards solving Nigeria's problems.

THREAD.

Power.

We have 2 major problems with Power, 1. Generation and 2. Getting the power to users (Transmission and distribution). The disco part is still thorny, but with the carrot and stick approach, they can be pushed to make the right private investments to expand the network.

Transmission has been left out of the privatization policy, I think this can be changed. Private hands can be engaged in a JV partnership that still protects the internal security of the state. This also can be opened up to states to develop as per FG guidelines.

But the anchor of my idea really lies with the generation side. Nigeria has 6 geo-political zones, each zone has a defacto capital, with adjoining states and their capitals. Basically, all economic activities within the country can be traced down this arrangement.

SW for instance, has Lagos, everything within the southwest tilts towards Lagos, farmers in Osun look to market their produce in Lagos. Manufacturing plants in Ogun state, seek to produce for the Lagos market. All other zones follow a similar pattern.

This is a good platform to build upon. Every state capital can generate, at least, an additional 200MW, to what they currently receive from the national grid. This can be achieved within the shortest possible time of 24 months. How? Here's how....

Natural gas-fired, thermal generating plants are abundantly available and easy to deploy. They come in various sizes and from various manufacturers. Chief of them is GE/jenbacer, Cummins, Ducon, Fuji of Japan, etc.

FG can task each state capital to house these plants, 200MW each per state, by providing land and ROW for their adjoining power grids. This will deploy 7,200MW swiftly across the country. Now, I know you're asking, how will the fuel be provided?

"Nigeria is a country with a lot of gas and a little oil." - unknown.

We have abundant natural gas resources in SS Nigeria. While I would like us to explore all our natural resources, especially using fuels available closest to these states and plants, speed won't be achieved.

Endless time will be spent debating and developing these fuels. However, NG is abundantly available and easy to deploy. First, it can be transported as LNG over long distances, remaining stable, it's clean and relatively cheaper than it's fossil counterparts.

The same energy we currently use to supply diesel nationwide, can be deployed to supplying NG to these plants at cheaper rates, because the trucks will run on the same fuel LNG. A diesel truck can easily run LNG on the same engine. Ask Dangote trucks.

By building a virtual pipeline network of LNG trucks, supply these plants can be steady and continuous. Not forgetting our rail lines, recently revamped. We can deploy as much of it as possible to keeping these plants running continuously.

This will be expensive, no doubt, but not as expensive as the darkness we currently experience and the manhour losses our GDP suffers yearly. It can be done.

While this is going on, Teams of engineers and welders will be commissioned, by FG through the Nigerian society of Engineers, with a clear mandate to construct a pipe grid of LNG supply across all states, to these plants, provided all the plants were initially situated....

......in areas accessible to the pipeline, according to the Nigeria gas master plan. This network will be built per state, in modules that will key into each other at strategic interstate and geopolitical joints. This will ensure multiple teams work tirelessly to deliver in time.

Working apart but collectively, will not only deliver the pipeline in record time, it will expand the footprint of the economic impact of such a project and localise gains of the technical know-how. Nigeria will leap in bounds technologically.

This type of massive project will also cause ripple effects to the local economies of these states, not including the gains of the availability of power. This is a lofty idea. But great economies have dreamt bigger and achieved same..we can do it!

Furthermore, as all these simultaneous works are on going, it will be important not to lose sight of the grand objective, which is the exploration and use of the naturally occurring resources within each zone for the development of that zone - Fiscal federalism.

All this can happen within 24 - 36 months of any serious government. And can be easily funded from our current earnings. 7200MW will cost roughly $7.2bn, with all the other side projects, $30bn spread across 3 years is attainable. We can do this. Thank you for your time sir.

God bless the federal republic of Nigeria.

A truck running on LNG, can go as far as 1200km without refuelling.

LAG - ABV ~ 550KM

The current gas pipeline runs to Ajaokuta, covers cities like Ogun, Lagos, Rivers, Edo, etc. (I actually don't remember) but we have more states that can easily tap in....

Dear sir, @atiku continuing on this topic, yesterday I discussed an emergency solution for power. Today I want to talk about Commerce and Industry.

THREAD continues....

We all know that Nigeria had multi-ethnic commercial nerve centres spread across the length and breadth of the country. However, we lost most of them to the emergence of oil as our highest FX earner. Many of these centres still spot infrastructure from the 60s when they blossomed

Below is a map of Nigeria, showing the states as presently constituted.

As it stands today, Lagos is the commercial nerve center of Nigeria. But this doesn't have to remain so. We know that commerce is directly linked to access to large bodies of water, as in the past. But today's commerce is different, land locked states have other options.

All the other forms of transportation are now available to Nigerians and can accelerate rapidly, commercially, if set free from the self installed shackles of unitary governance.

Is it possible for us to maintain our federal structure but operate a regional commercial economy? I think so. Seeing that our commercial activities geo-politically revolves around immediately easy and accessible natural endowments, it will be fool-hardy to pursue fairy tales.

We can simply organise our commercial systems around geo-political zones. The same way we can route power, we can route VALUE the same way. There seems to be the following value centers per GPZ. Kano, Rivers, Lagos, Anambra, Kogi and Gombe. These are also geographically central.

However, not only are they mostly central, they are the most easily accessible commercial nerve centers to all within and without that GPZ. The essence of this is for National and regional planning around these GPZ capitals - infrastructural, financial and security planning.

Having this model of socio-economic centrism, makes it easy to mobilize resources - man and material, to push development from the ground up. E.g. Commodities exchanges can be set up as per region, for the purchase of all produce above 1 ton.

It will be mandated that all trucks conveying produce, must bear a ticket of purchase from the central commodities exchange of the originating region. This gives stability and significantly reduces risk to both farmers and industrial players.

Our Stock market can also have regional annexes to bolster investment and even participation across the regions. Infrastructural accessibility becomes easier to plan, finance and deploy, as the centers already play to their geographical advantage.

Commerce really is easy, it speaks for itself. Value is created by following logical business laws, these centers uphold these laws, of nearness to market, raw material and human capital. Money chases value. This is not all, but I believe, it summarizes my direction of thought.

Have a good night sir.

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Having each GPZ center with one or more states close to either a sea port or in-land water way and dry sea port makes it easy for the centers to mobilize and move commodities across the country. If water transportation fails, Air or Train freight cargo will step in.

This way, Nigeria satisfies it's own demand and pushes it's excess to the export market easily, to earn FX. This is why I think this government failed in side-stepping ACFTA. I believe Nigeria can compete and dominate the sub-regional or sub-saharan market.

Last week, Ghana invited SA to bid for Oil wells, in their oil bid rounds. Meaning, the oil market within the gulf of guinea will soon be dominated by Ghana, circa African trade. This is unacceptable. We need to fix up.

Our challenges are easily surmountable, with vision.