Where do today's events leave Brexit? To borrow from this thread it's the start of a UK political crisis, one that is almost certainly going to get worse before it gets better. A Suez crisis for our generation, how do we get out of this situation? 1/
Start from the obvious, and recognise that there is no simple solution. Remainers say there is, EEAers say there is, ERGers say there is, etc, but these solutions would leave huge numbers dissatisfied. I like what @Simonhartmp has to say here 2/ huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-jo…
At some point we need leadership - maybe from a group of MPs - to be honest with the UK public about the choices we face. Broadly as I endlessly retweet below. It might not be the case forever, but that is the choice for 9 months time 3/
All the evidence suggests that both the PM and Leader of the Opposition are too tribal to put together the kind of cross-party coalition we need at this point. So I'm not sure where the leadership comes from. But it must come from somewhere 4/
Once we have that leadership another choice will emerge, which may in fact win the day, which is to extend different deadlines. That will also not be popular with many, but it might be the least unpopular option 5/
Somehow we are going to have to have some kind of open debate about where we want to go as a country. Such debates are to put it mildly counter to usual UK political culture. But I doubt we can reach an even halfway satisfactory outcome without this 6/
Even more uncomfortably we'll have to recognise some failings - not least the hit we have taken to our reputation for pragmatism in other countries and with global businesses. And those laughing at us because they thought we were globally arrogant e.g. our harsh visa regime 7/
That pragmatism and our creativity have been highly prized internationally, but don't appear much in the Brexit debate. I suspect we'll need them to find an answer to our main and age-old problem of being reluctant Europeans 8/
We are surrounded by a strong EU. We don't know if that lasts 100s of years or breaks up surprisingly quickly. For the moment we have to deal with each other, which means with a mutual respect increasingly lacking 9/
Realistically for the time being that means respecting EU red lines, but equally testing them, and seeking flexibility. That is reasonable in any negotiation. And if the red lines don't meet, keep working on solutions. 10/
Sadly I suspect all of this will take some time, and the UK crisis will get worse before we recover. It may take new elections, or a referendum. It may need an economic crisis, hopefully we can recognise the crisis and find a new course before that 11/ ends
