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Simon Wardley @swardley
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
X : We need to exit brexit.
Me : How?
X : By revoking article 50
Me : How? Even the EC says there's no unilateral right to revoke. You'd have to negotiate.
X : So, we will negotiate.
Me : Like today?
X : No, we'd have a clear plan.
Me : "Remaining" is no clearer than "Leaving".
X : That doesn't make sense.
Me : Let us pretend we've had a 2nd vote. Electorate agreed to remain. You're UK GOV and I'm the EC.

UK : We're going to revoke article 50.
EC : This can only be done by multilateral agreement with the EU27 who have appointed us as their negotiator.
UK : We disagree.
EC : The treaties cease as per Article 50 in March 2019.
UK : But we're revoking article 50.
EC : This can only be done by multilateral agreement with the EU27 who have appointed us as their negotiator.
UK : What does the EU27 require?
EC : What are you offering?
UK : Loss of the rebate on EC budgets?
EC : That's acceptable but not sufficient.
UK : What else?
EC : What are you offering?
UK : You need to tell us what you want.
EC : You need to tell us what you're offering.
UK : Loss of rebate and compensation?
EC : We would consider the current financial settlement to be suitable.
UK : No way.
EC : The treaties cease per Article 50 in March 2019.
UK : We've agreed with electorate to revoke Article 50.
EC : We would consider the current financial settlement to be suitable.
UK : The electorate won't accept that.
EC : The treaties cease as per Article 50 in March 2019.
UK : Ok, loss of the rebate plus the financial settlement.
EC : That's acceptable but not sufficient.
UK : What else?
EC : What are you offering?
UK : No way.
EC : The treaties cease as per Article 50 in March 2019.
UK : We've agreed with the electorate to revoke Article 50.
... and so it will go on and on.

If you want to exit brexit, then I would strongly suggest you get agreement with the EC and the EU27 over the terms of revoking article 50 prior to even considering a 2nd vote.
As an alternative to getting some form of agreement with the EC and EU27 on how to overturn article 50 prior to having a 2nd referendum ... you could always try getting a tattoo of "numpty" on your forehead. It'll at least make clear your negotiating position.
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The most popular option every time - backed on average by just over a quarter - has been to leave without a deal at all - bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… ... well, I'd prefer GE followed by Corbyn + Brexit (preferably WTO but EEA docked to EFTA is fine) but that's a bit specialised.
... what I do find amazing is that "no deal" still tops the options after years of continuous campaigning both online and offline to overturn the referendum against no effective opposition. That is fairly spectacular, almost unprecedented.
But as always, do remember these are polls and not reality. Lest we forget 23/Jun/16 ...
Populus had Remain 10% ahead
ComRes had Remain 6%+
YouGov had Remain 4%+
Ipsos Mori had Remain 4%+
... One of the few dissenting voices was Opinium, who produced that recent poll.
Read 3 tweets
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X : Who created Wardley Maps?
Me : Err ... the clue is in the name?
X : Are they new?
Me : In terms of historical scales - yes. It's only 14 years old.
X : Why haven't I heard of them before?
Me : Because the world is large and techniques take time to diffuse?
X : Could you create me a map of my organisation?
Me : I could but it wouldn't help you.
X : Why?
Me : Because you wouldn't know what to do with it. You really need to learn to map for yourself.
X : How do I do that?
Me : Start here - medium.com/wardleymaps - just add practice.
X : How long will it take?
Me : To become really good at mapping, for it to become natural .. many years.
X : I don't have the time, how do I speed it up?
Me : Well, you could decide to actually start and use it i.e. practice. There is no shortcut for practice.
Read 7 tweets
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+1 -> "our ancestor chiefs understood bows, horses, and agriculture, our contemporary chiefs (and those in the media responsible for scrutiny) generally do not understand their equivalents, and are often less experienced in managing complex organisations than their predecessors"
+100 -> "We do not have a problem with ‘too much cynicism’ - we
have a problem with too much trust in people and institutions that are not fit to control so much."
+∞ -> "Most politicians, officials, and advisers operate with fragments of philosophy, little knowledge of maths or science and little experience in well-managed complex organisations."
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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NEO LONDON, England, December 2125 -- The last surviving participant of the 2016 EU Referendum died today aged 127. Emily Jackson had just turned 18 when the referendum was held, and voted to Remain. [THREAD]
To mark this historic occasion, the UK government has announced it is abandoning #Brexit and revoking Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. The UK will remain part of the EU, just as Emily and the vast majority of her generation wished.
Article 50 was first triggered in March 2017. Following the surprise result of the referendum, the government panicked and started the clock on a two-year window for the UK to negotiate a withdrawal agreement with the remaining EU member states.
Read 12 tweets
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1) ECJ has just ruled - as expected - that U.K. can unilaterally revoke article 50 - the process by which U.K. leaves the EU -as long as parliament agrees or a new U.K. gov is in favour (following a general election)
2) ECJ has ruled that if U.K. changes its mind about #Brexit before the official leaving date of 29 March 2019 then the U.K. would stay in EU under current conditions - ie with rebate, opt-outs from Euro currency etc
3) Remember this is an ECJ ruling. It goes against European Commission which said revoking article 50 shouldn’t be a unilateral action by a leaving member state (Brussels worries about setting precedent in case other countries might pretend to “leave” in order to get better deal)
Read 3 tweets
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1/ It has gone largely unnoticed that #Brexit is closely tied to climate change denial.

55 Tufton Street in Westminister is home to 8 right-of-centre organisations combining support for #Brexit and climate change denial
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
#55TuftonSt #PeoplesVote
2/ Another article on the pro-Brexit and climate change denial organisations based at 55 & 57 Tufton St, including Vote Leave, the TPA & the IEA (linked to Raab) and some familiar names - Matthew Elliot, Owen Paterson, Nigel Lawson, Hintze & Gove.
desmog.co.uk/55-tufton-stre…
3/ A graphic showing some of the links between Brexiters and the transatlantic climate change denial network. Some familiar names - Fox, Davis, Gove Paterson, Farage and Arron Banks.
Read 6 tweets
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Thread 1/15 So you want to cash in big on #Brexit?

Here’s how.

Disclaimer. The following thread does not constitute financial advice. Before making any investment you should consult a professional financial adviser.
Just satire.
2/15 Now let’s suppose you have a spare £100m.

The first thing you need to do is invest it in non-Sterling denominated assets.

@Jacob_Rees_Mogg ‘s firm has a few funds, all investing $8.4billion in such assets, so ask him if you’re not sure.

He knows all about this.
3/15 For the sake of illustration, let’s make up an imaginary currency called the Wonga.

And let’s suppose that you get 2 Wongas to the Pound. W2=£1. The rate doesn’t matter.

So now you’ve got W200million in stocks denominated in Wonga currency.
Read 17 tweets
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1. We need a quick #Brexit thread on this don't we? Here is a brief outline on why Brendan O'Neill is a twat.
2. There is cross-society concern about No Deal because it affects all of us in countless ways. Some people could find themselves out of a job overnight. A number of key industries cannot function without regulatory cover. Project fear this is not.
3. But that's only a bit part of why O'Neill is a cretin. He has never really understood the technical issues thrown up by Brexit because he isn't interested. He doesn't have the intellectual architecture to cope with it. Brexit is just a pawn in his juvenile culture war.
Read 20 tweets
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1. Central to the crunch in #Brexit talks is that the ultras think the EU is over-egging the NI border situation and have unjustly rejected their ideas because of a political agenda to annex NI for Ireland. Which is bollocks...
2. It's really quite simple. The EU has controls on its outer frontiers because it has a system of rules to keep certain things out be they counterfeit airline spares of adulterated foods. It's a system, it's *their* system, and the want to keep it intact.
3. The UK has decided that it does not want to be inside of this system. If we didn't share a land border with the EU then that wouldn't be much of a problem. But we do. And it's a big problem...
Read 21 tweets

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