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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
On balance, for all the Brexit drama of the last couple of weeks, votes of last couple of days, nothing has changed. Backstop (Northern Ireland or UK wide), close relationship based around EEA, extension of time, or no deal. prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/parli…
Don't believe me? Try @BrunoBrussels - thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b… - it should be noted in any case now that there isn't enough time to negotiate anything meaningful on the future relationship
While always happy to receive replies to my posts, I don't think the EU will collapse before we're due to leave, or that at the last minute the EU will fold and offer us a free trade agreement and no border. I hope neither feature in government plans...
On numbers in Parliament I don't know. But Labour MPs will be key as deal or no-deal will have conservative rebels. Either way, impossible to negotiate properly in Brussels without knowing what carries support in London.
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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As forecast the UK Government has committed to following a significant part of single market rules after Brexit as part of the backstop and commitments to Northern Ireland (doc - assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
Although the Government paper says this will be "only a small fraction of EU rules", in fact there are nearly 70 pages of the Withdrawal Agreement simply listing the regulations Northern Ireland will have to follow under the backstop (example page below)
In case you are missing the significance, the UK Government has confirmed that the whole country will follow EEA / single market disciplines without any representation until a new deal can be agreed.
Read 5 tweets
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Brexit is testing Parliamentary procedure. The Government does not command a majority.

Might as well break protocol further, it is time for a Parliamentary committee to take control of the Brexit process.
Yes, I can think of many reasons why this won't work, but nothing that would work better. We're going to be stuck in Parliamentary bickering for weeks unless something new is done.
See also this Guardian proposal as championed by @stellacreasy among others for a Brexit citizens assembly. We have to break out of where we are and not perpetuate divisionism theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 3 tweets
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With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets

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Northern Ireland's pro-remain parties are meeting @theSNP @LibDems & @Plaid_Cymru in London today. They will meet Labour leader @jeremycorbyn this afternoon.

#brexit
DUP deputy leader @NigelDoddsDUP: “Sinn Fein will turn up today at Westminster, do a couple of meetings, talk in front of the cameras and then disappear until they repeat the exercise in another couple of weeks. It’s a con job and a classic example of stunt politics."
.@NigelDoddsDUP : If Sinn Fein MPs were truly passionate about #Brexit, they would take their seats in the House of Commons and actually use their votes to influence the outcome. Over 40% of the divisions on EU Withdrawal Bill had a majority of less than 20.
Read 8 tweets
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#Brexit thoughts this AM. The draft Withdrawal Agreement has a Northern Ireland sub-committee to the Joint Committee and sounds like there's been progress on an arbitration panel for the governance of the treaty = forum to discuss exit from a temporary customs arrangement? (1)
ANOTHER reminder of what @MichelBarnier said about the UK-wide customs idea way back in July. Note the problems he said had to be solved to make it work. europa.eu/rapid/press-re… (2)
And finally, I've now seen FIVE different dates for an extra-special Brexit summit in November. But I've been told that my trip to the German Christmas markets on 1/2 December should be safe! (3
Read 3 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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