There's a lot of chatter at the moment about Tory Brexiteers moving to topple Theresa May. I think it's unlikely. For five reasons. 1/6
1. This week has shown that the ERG can stamp its feet, threaten revolt, get Theresa May to abandon consistency & U-turn on crucial Brexit issues. As long as the puppet keeps moving when they choose to pull the strings, why change? 2/6
2. Article 50 means we WILL leave the EU on March 29 2019. The default outcome if Parliament can't agree the PM's Deal or any alternative (very likely) is that we leave anyway with a Hard Brexit. That suits the ERG. If they continue to paralyse Parliament, they get their way. 3/6
3. Triggering a leadership contest will mean months of devastating political limbo. Which may suit the ERG (see point 2). But they will be blamed for an act of national political self-immolation, & risk losing sympathy & credibility as a group acting in the national interest. 4/6
4. It is far from clear that the ERG could agree on a particular alternative candidate. Nor that any alternative candidate would get to the final stage of the ballot for Tory members. Why take the risk when you can manipulate the current PM into a Hard Brexit by default? 5/6
5. Even if the PM can get some kind of deal, many Tory Brexiteers are now discussing "Brexit 2.0": waiting until we leave in March 2019, moving against the PM then, & doing Brexit properly from Transition. Augustine for Brexiteers: "Lord give me Hard Brexit, but not yet". 6/6
