1. It strikes me there’s a fascinating mini-paradox in the current fraught domestic politics surrounding Brexit, one that may prove to be quite pivotal to whether we change tack on Brexit, or change Prime Minister, in the coming weeks/months. Thanks for your indulgence... 1/9
2. Imagine you are a Brexiteer Tory MP. You’re spitting blood about Theresa May’s negotiating tactics (raising the possibility of a longer transition, contemplating the UK staying as a budget contributor in the EU customs union for 3 more years, etc.). She’s lost your trust. 2/9
3. So why don’t Brexiteer Tory MPs move to depose the PM? Combined with other malcontents they probably have the numbers to trigger a challenge. They could rustle up a candidate who, if not ideal, would from their point of view be much better than Mrs May. So why don’t they? 3/9
4. I suspect Brexiteers don’t challenge the PM because they think they don’t need to. Art 50 means we will leave the EU on March 29 2019. And unless there is a Parliamentary-backed Brexit deal, the UK’s default trajectory is not No Brexit, but that we will leave with No Deal. 4/9
5. Given that default all the ERG has to do to get a Hard Brexit is stop Parliament deciding anything. The best way for the ERG to do that is for the PM to stay, lose the vote on her deal, then mobilise in the Commons to stop a majority backing any other plan (not that tough) 5/9
6. Though not risk-free, keeping Theresa May in place & making sure the Commons rejects her Deal is a far surer way of getting to Hard Brexit than changing PM now - with all the risks that brings of a new PM asking for an extension of A50, or some other ruse, to buy time. 6/9
7. Here comes the mini-paradox. If keeping Theresa May in office but unable to get anything through Parliament is the best route to Hard Brexit, the big threat comes from the possibility that Labour defectors may ride to the PM’s rescue & give her a majority for her Deal. 7/9
8. If Tory Brexiteer MPs start to believe that the PM’s deal may actually get through because enough Labour MPs will back it, they are more likely to depose her as Tory leader now, & opt instead for someone who is more of a True Believer to take over the Tory leadership. 8/9
9. So the more Labour MPs come out to say they are prepared to rescue Theresa May’s deal, the more precarious her position becomes. Trying to save her may lose her office. The ERG wants her as a lame duck. If Labour MPs breathe life into the duck, it could be her last quack. 9/9
