Profile picture
Jon Stokes @jonst0kes
, 8 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ A quick note on BGCs & saving lives. It's hard to know how many lives they save because we're reasoning about a counterfactual, i.e. "how many extra people would be dead if this weren't in place." So as a proxy for that gun controllers offer # of people prevented from buying.
2/ The big problem with offering this number is it's FULL of false positives. Gun controllers love the high number of false positives b/c it inflates the one number they have as a good proxy for "lives saved," i.e. # of people who failed a BGC.
3/ But a big percentage of those people who fail a BGC are eventually cleared to purchase, & they come back & get a gun. So the false positive rate is very high, & also regressive b/c having a common hispanic name will cause you to fail. But this explains something peculiar tho.
4/ What outsiders to this debate find odd is that the NRA is the one pushing to "Fix NICS," and the gun controllers are the ones who do not want to fix it! So outsiders see this and think, "fix NICS must be code for abolishing i t, right?" But it isn't. The NRA wants it fixed!
5/ And the NRA wants it fixed because if it were fixed, & the false positive rate were closer to zero, it would look far less effective. The number of BGC failures would fall off a cliff, & rationale for having a BGC system in the first place (i.e. it stops millions) would 💣
6/ They'd point to a fixed BGC system & go, "hey, it doesn't stop many ppl/yr from getting guns, especially when put up against the # of crime-related gun homicides, & also it's regressive & racist and we know you hate stuff that is regressive & racist... so let's scrap it!"
7/ Addendum: there is a lot of controversy over how high the false positive rate is. See here: washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-che…
8/ I think two things about this controversy: the NRA wants to lower the false positive rate, & the (mostly) Dems do not. So whatever the truth of the matter, both sides have the impression that fixing the false positive rate would have a real impact on the numbers.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jon Stokes
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!