THREAD on Manafort, tax fraud, and pardons:
Now that the prosecution is showing its slam-dunk case of tax fraud, people should be relieved that this clarifies a Trump pardon can't save Manafort. Instead, I'm seeing more worry about a pardon. Don't worry...
Now that the prosecution is showing its slam-dunk case of tax fraud, people should be relieved that this clarifies a Trump pardon can't save Manafort. Instead, I'm seeing more worry about a pardon. Don't worry...
2/ I wrote this back in Nov on Mueller's strategy to avoid pardon loopholes. State tax fraud is probably stronger today.
Manafort lied on his fed tax returns. It is implausible that he would then tell the truth about foreign accounts on his state taxes. slate.com/articles/news_…
Manafort lied on his fed tax returns. It is implausible that he would then tell the truth about foreign accounts on his state taxes. slate.com/articles/news_…
3/ It seems likely that Manafort paid state taxes in New York and/or Virginia, where he owns homes. Both have state income taxes. Even though the charges sound the same, the tax frauds would be separate acts. Here's the NY statute I wrote about in @Slate: codes.findlaw.com/ny/criminal-pr…
4/ NY has an exception to its double jeopardy law for tax fraud, enacted after Leona Helmsley. So even if Manafort were prosecuted for the same act of tax fraud, it probably falls under this exception (40.20 (2) (i)), and would not be double jeopardy.
5/ So Manafort is probably facing a slam-dunk state tax fraud prosecution in NY. For more on the Helmsley tax fix, see this article. H/t @EricColumbus @ssamcham
maglaw.com/publications/a…
maglaw.com/publications/a…
6/ And we haven't even started talking about what other non-tax state prosecutions he would be facing in many states. E.g., @pwnallthethings on other uncharged mortgage/bank frauds. h/t @TCleveland4Real
7/ The bottom line is that pardons won't save Manafort. The real question is whether Manafort is just praying for a crypto-MAGA hold-out juror... or if he really prefers jail over cooperating. And I can see why he might...
8/ I think he's playing out a trial to see what the govt has. I get that: partly rational, partly denial. Once he sees a trial play out, and if he's convicted, he'd see the costs of a series of state trials would outweigh the benefits.
And he'd prefer fed prison over state prison
And he'd prefer fed prison over state prison
