The last time TR closed bases to Us forces, it made sure to keep them open for NATO stuff. Incirlik hosts the 39th air wing (no permanent strike aircraft). The aircraft there for counter IS stuff we’re approved by parliament. Kurecik is US operated but for a NATO mission
So closing Incirlik would mean ending TR’s role in counter-IS. Important that US us withdrawn much of its counter IS stuff from TR. Germans left too. Spain is there for a NATO BMD rotation.
It’s important to remember that NATO is different than bilateral US-Turkish issues. Ankara can of course turn some screws. But ... pre-IS US present at Incirlik was 1.3k. It was a transit point for Afghanistan. Manas closure factors in here, but so does Udeid (which is a monster)
Politics looms over all this. But important to keep things in perspective.
Final note is that the physical US presence in TR is in no way comparable to 1975. It’s much smaller.
