Geopolitical thought for this morning: Pakistan, a nuclear armed nation that has been dealing with an Taliban insurgency for almost 2 decades, is about to swear in a new government. This government faces a $12 billion balance of payments crisis within a month (1)
Much of this debt is due to loans associated with a $50 billion Chinese investment plan aimed at building infrastructure to linking China with a warm water port in the Arabian Sea. This would mean easier access to middle eastern oilfields for the Chinese navy (2)
The Saudi backed Islamic Development Bank is likely to cover a third of the Pakistani balance of payments shortfall. Much of the rest is likely to be financed through other Gulf Arab sources or further Chinese loans, not the IMF because of US objections. (3)
The United States recently cut military aid to Pakistan and last week eliminated financing for joint training programs. This week Pakistan announced joint military training agreements with the Russian Federation. (4)
Like Afghanistan during Kipling’s time, Pakistan today finds itself at the nexus of a “Great Game” between three world powers. Namely Russia, China and the United States. This is a game that, for now, at least the United States seems to be withdrawing from (5)
Don’t get me wrong. Pakistan’s security establishment has not always been a reliable partner, although it did provide assistance in some key Al Qaida arrests like that if Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. (6)
What is happening now is that other emerging powers are stepping into fill the void left by the United States. Where most educated Pakistani families always taught their children English in the past, many are now also enrolling them in Mandarin classes. (7)
If Pakistan becomes totally reliant on the gulf Arab states for financial survival and Russia and China for Military support, where does this leave the western allies? Does it mean that Moscow + Beijing now have a strategic outpost a stones throw from the the gulf oil fields?
Does growing Chinese influence in Pakistan, combined with its growing naval strength in the South China Sea, mean for India’s economic aspirations? Is it now strategically encircled? (9)
All of this to say... when the United States rolls back it’s engagement from a country like Pakistan, the geopolitical implications can be far reaching and long lasting. Foreign policy is a complicated beast. It requires nuance and long term thinking. (10)
