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Jill Rutter @jillongovt
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
new @instituteforgov report sets out basic scenarios for the autumn.

key points. Defaults in the system are for no deal.
@instituteforgov that is because of article 50 and the EU withdrawal act. For something else to happen govt needs a deal with the EU AND a Parliamentary majority to agree it
@instituteforgov parliament can vote down a PM deal and send her back - but the EU would need to allow UK to renegotiate and Parliament would need to endorse a renegotiated deal
@instituteforgov if Parliament really wants to dictate the future relationship it needs a majority for an off-the-shelf option. Anything else is up for negotiation with the EU.
@instituteforgov the autumn (winter) votes will all be about the withdrawal agreement..if there is one... if there isn't one, Parliament will get to discuss in January..
@instituteforgov There are options to try to break a potential stalemate if one emerges. But the real pressure (from both EU and UK govt) may come through time... a late deal and a Parliamentary rush.
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More from @jillongovt see all

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my suggestion to help the PM - EU agrees to set up a working group of technical experts as soon as WA passed to investigate and make recommendations on "technological and facilitative arrangements"
can include any experts nominated by the UK (so all the ERG's favourite experts) and reps from HMRC and Defra and Irish authorities + EU experts.
set a deadline to report by October 2019 so can be fed into the discussions on the long-run future relationship... and have it chaired by a neutral. Both sides agree to consider conclusions carefully as part of "best endeavours"
Read 4 tweets
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An eventful day in parliament.. govt went down to a defeat on contempt instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/con… - and will publish AG legal advice
that will look at the NI backstop - and presumably contains some warning on how hard it is to exit instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-easy-e… spoiler: it is
the govt then went down on an amendment to the business motion on the meaningful vote instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…
Read 15 tweets
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Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
Read 21 tweets

Related threads

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Have received numerous messages about my last note/thread. Thought I’d use them as opportunity to unpack our latest views on Brexit. Will build on this analysis as our views - and Brexit story - develops
1/ Current probabilities as of mid-December:

40% 2nd Ref. This is our central scenario, alongside extension of Article 50
30% Norway+
20% May’s deal
10% No-deal
Separately, think there is a 15% risk of early election

These numbers fluid, and will evolve
2/ Why such small % for no deal? There is conflict between the legal position in EU Withdrawal Act and the politics. The overwhelming view among ministers and backbenchers in all parties is that politics will win out
Read 24 tweets
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😎WhatsApp😎

📌Mueller preparing end game for Russia probe, says Trump’s attys

📌In WhatsApp texts Khashoggi describes MbS as a "beast," a "pac-man" who would devour all in his path, even his supporters.

📌CIA Dir Gina Haspel to Brief Senators Tuesday on Khoshoggi’s Murder
😎WhatsApp2😎

📌Trump publicly absolved Russia of any blame for the attack on our elex— while apparently carrying on private financial dealings that involved Putin.

📌The legal implications re offering Putin a $50M penthouse in Trump Tower Moscow, oh my!
😎WhatsApp3😎

📌”Short of being a canvas bag of money, the offer of a $50M penthouse apartment in Trump Tower Moscow as a gift for Putin, sounds like a high value gift to a government official for the purpose of gaining an improper business advantage,"
Read 68 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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So here's the situation; I suggest that Michael Gove and hard core Brexiteers don't read on because I'm speaking from the perspective of a bit of an expert here. I spent a decade living and working in over
1/ a dozen different countries as part of an international trade negotiating team working on billions of dollars of trade inside and outside of the EU and appeared as an expert witness on behalf of the Hong Kong SAR Government in an international
3/ arbitration case.

The Chequers Accord was dead before it was written and the Cabinet should have known that after being told for 2 long years that it is illegal to cherry pick the Four Pillars of the European Union.
Read 14 tweets
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So... in the light of @DmitryOpines' thread about the enforcement of WTO rules; here's a thread on the enforcement of EU law rules. Rather like the WTO, the EU is still badly misunderstood. So here is some EU law for you!

1/n
This is necessarily simplified (but I hope not overly so). The key point is that EU law, unlike eg WTO law, is applied and enforced by domestic courts. EU law rules have teeth, and can be (relatively easily) enforced by private individuals. 2/n
A preliminary point is that the nature of EU law, and the balance of power and responsibility as between national courts and the CJEU, is controversial. The EU legal order and national legal orders are in tension. This is my take (esp at p.4-6): 3/n
Read 22 tweets
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NEW: In the wake of the Trump tax cut and recent spending hike, CBO says the 10-year deficit will be $1.6 trillion larger than projected in June.

cbo.gov/system/files/1…
It's hard to overstate what a dizzying turnaround this is from the "debt crisis" rhetoric that dominated Washington from 2009-2016, led by Republicans and accepted for some years by Democrats.

President Trump and Republican leaders argued the tax cut will pay for itself.

A new CBO report says it'll lower 10-year revenues by $1 trillion.

cbo.gov/system/files/1…
Read 6 tweets

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