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Jill Rutter @jillongovt
, 15 tweets, 8 min read Read on Twitter
An eventful day in parliament.. govt went down to a defeat on contempt instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/con… - and will publish AG legal advice
that will look at the NI backstop - and presumably contains some warning on how hard it is to exit instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/no-easy-e… spoiler: it is
the govt then went down on an amendment to the business motion on the meaningful vote instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…
that means that - if the PM's vote is rejected - Parliament will be able to amend a subsequent motion on what the govt does next - but that is not all that might happen instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/los…
a regular reminder that the current legislative position is that we exit with No Deal on 29 March unless Parliament substitutes something else - instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
that could involve a second referendum - getting there is less easy than it looks - and would require an Art 50 extension instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/sec…
but Remainers will be boosted by a judgement from the AG yesterday that said UK should be able to withdraw article 50 notification if genuinely changing its mind.. but that is not the final decision of the ECJ..
but revoking to buy time for No Deal preps would be off the cards...
Meanwhile the 5 day marathon debate started.. lots of talk about options for post-#Brexit relations with the EU. we set out some of them last year instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/t…
the PM was pressed yesterday on her claims on security cooperation @lewisalloyd set out what we might lose instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/time-runn…
@lewisalloyd More on this today as its security day in the Brexit debate @instituteforgov n the summer instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/n…
@lewisalloyd @instituteforgov economy tomorrow - but today the Chancellor is defending that economic analysis before the TSC - @gemmatetlow rated the analysis as serious work instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/governmen…
@lewisalloyd @instituteforgov @gemmatetlow but @awstojanovic pointed out that the assumptions chosen made the PM option look particularly good instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/governmen…
@lewisalloyd @instituteforgov @gemmatetlow @awstojanovic and here is @instituteforgov assessment of many of the earlier analyses instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/u…
@lewisalloyd @instituteforgov @gemmatetlow @awstojanovic that is probably enough for now.. but govt also told us more about no deal yesterday.. we will be analysing those and updating...
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my suggestion to help the PM - EU agrees to set up a working group of technical experts as soon as WA passed to investigate and make recommendations on "technological and facilitative arrangements"
can include any experts nominated by the UK (so all the ERG's favourite experts) and reps from HMRC and Defra and Irish authorities + EU experts.
set a deadline to report by October 2019 so can be fed into the discussions on the long-run future relationship... and have it chaired by a neutral. Both sides agree to consider conclusions carefully as part of "best endeavours"
Read 4 tweets
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Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
Read 21 tweets
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New @NAOorguk report on @DefraGovUK preparations for #brexit is complimentary on progress made nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
@NAOorguk @DefraGovUK but even though they are doing well it illustrates the scale of the task the dept faces - even with its extra 1300 people
@NAOorguk @DefraGovUK real risks around readiness for "no deal" on fisheries, on chemicals, on food exports ..... but most interesting part is the criticism of ability to engage with businesses
Read 7 tweets

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A few thoughts on last night's events in Parliament.
1. As Grieve said himself, his amendment does not prevent a no deal (still the legal default), but does make it less likely by allowing Parli step in and tell the gov not to let it happen.
2. As @ThimontJack has said, by making Parli's 2nd vote amendable - the Grieve amendment allows MPs to push the can down the road again, using the first vote to reject the PM's deal, but only having to make substantive suggestions on what they want instead in round 2.
3. As most MPs don't want no deal, Grieve amdt ups stakes for hard Brexiters. If PM's deal is voted down, Parli may push for a softer Brexit or 2nd ref in vote 2. Makes it slightly more likely PM deal passes in vote 1, but less likely MPs would be bounced into 2nd vote on PM deal
Read 7 tweets
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When all the #Brexit chat is about parliamentary shenanigans it’s easy to forget that these decisions will have real-world impacts, including a potential #nodeal… here’s a quick look at where #nodeal planning currently stands:
1. First the good news: the Government has struck agreements with the USA, Canada and 8 other countries to ensure flights can continue even in the case of no deal (nothing yet on flights to/from/within EU countries though)

gov.uk/government/new…
2. And the Government’s lottery for road haulage permits has opened – so if you’re a haulage company that wants to transport goods across the EU after a #nodeal Brexit, get your application in now for a 5% chance of securing a permit (h/t @RHANews)

gov.uk/guidance/ecmt-…
Read 10 tweets
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As things stand there are two key options for the PM
- continue as planned & try to get deal through Parliament
- accept there will be no deal so immediately increase govt planning

In both cases the govt will have to go to parliament, I've set out no deal process below👇1/
EU Withdrawal Act says 3 prospects for no deal:
1) parly votes down the deal
2) PM announces that no deal can be reached by 21 Jan
3) 21 Jan arrives without a deal

In whichever scenario a minister has to make a statement saying what the govt plans to do next 2/
But Parliament will likely want to influence this process (e.g. extend article 50, second referendum) - because it is still unlikely there is a majority in the House for no deal

I think there are three ways that parliament could try and do this 3/
Read 8 tweets
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The Tories and their media mates are dodging the question of what happens when May's botched #Brexit deal gets voted out by The Commons.
This Thread is on why the Brexit deal vote is essentially a vote of confidence and why a defeat should mean a General Election.
(1 of 6)
The key concept here is 'confidence'. A government stays in power by having the confidence of the House of Commons. Meaning that it has a majority to pass its business. Losing a vote of confidence means they've 'lost' the House and by convention a General Election is due
(2 of 6)
The #Brexit deal vote is for all intents and purposes a vote of confidence. It is what the Tories have said themselves their government is all about achieving. It's been their excuse for neglect of other areas of policy, like social care. It is a "big set piece" vote.
(3 of 6)
Read 6 tweets
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Hottest ticket in town.
The running order: UK Government up first. Scotland responds. Then Wales and Northern Ireland make brief interventions. All over at 4pm tomorrow.
And here is the case under consideration
Read 51 tweets
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Before the #whitepaper we thought amdts from Tory Remainers would be the big story this week on the #Brexit bills

Instead, after number of govt resignations, all eyes are on Brexiteer amdts to #CustomsBill

But what do they mean & what are some of the other amdts? 1/
ERG amdts
-prevent govt from collecting taxes/duties for territory without reciprocity
-NI can't be in separate customs territory to GB
-have to pass Act of Parl to participate in customs union
-remove powers to govern VAT of goods from territory if in a customs union with it 2/
1st is most difficult for govt as it goes against the govts customs proposal which would require the UK to collect tariffs on behalf of the EU

More info here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/pms…

Other 3 are compatible with govt policy but would prevent movement to a softer #Brexit 3/
Read 11 tweets

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