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Tom McTague @TomMcTague
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This is an example of a story (original @JakeWSimons @MailOnline) which may tip some Lab MPs over the edge to resign the whip regardless of its affects on Brexit, as I explored here: politico.eu/article/brexit… and @stephenkb did here: newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Without judgement on merits of what Lab MPs think, understand this basic fact: a significant minority of the PLP believe Corbyn is:
1) A security threat
2) Unfit to be PM
3) An enabler of racism — or worse
Of this group, a majority are prepared to campaign for him to be PM
It's my understanding that right now only a minority of this minority who believe JC is unfit to be PM are considering resigning the Lab whip. At the moment they do not want to do anything before Brexit — but some acknowledge there might be another reason not to quit in April
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Back from 3 days in Brussels and another EU capital. One point worth emphasising: it’s hard to overstate how crap the backstop customs deal is for 🇬🇧, despite all this about it being hard for 🇪🇺 to live with. The 🇪🇺 would be perfectly okay with it I think. It’s Turkey, but worse.
As explained to me:
1. Trade deals EU *already* has with 3rd countries do not apply to UK
2. UK needs to renegotiate its *current deals* from weaker position without power to lower tariffs
3. New EU trade deals potentially open UK market to X country but *not* X market to UK
🤯
Trade boffins: is this wrong? That is certainly the EU’s view as of this morning. Some in Brussels cannot quite believe the UK is agreeing to this customs arrangement.
It’s pay more to get what you already have *at best* while giving up control over the vast bulk of trade policy
Read 3 tweets
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A thread on Norway for Now👇
Momentum is growing for @NickBoles' plan. As I've said before, there's much to be said for it, but it still has a no. of problems (I count 8 politico.eu/article/soft-b…). To his credit, NB address them here: thetimes.co.uk/article/norway…. Is he right? 1/10
.@NickBoles is persuasive, but on 2 major problems — the backstop & leaving EEA/EFTA — I'm not fully convinced. Nick says 🇪🇺 will sign Withdrawal Agreement without the backstop if 🇬🇧 agrees EEA/EFTA without a time limit (because this achieves the same thing + customs union) 2/10
As of now, this is not No10's understanding. They believe the backstop is now sacrosanct for 🇪🇺 (i.e. even if 🇬🇧 agrees to move straight into EFTA/EEA it will have to sign a NI-specific backstop). Perhaps in a crisis, because Nick's logic is sound, this could change 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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There's a curious contradiction in the EU Withdrawal Act. If a deal can't be reached by Jan 21 the govt must make a statement within 14 days (Feb 4) — 7 "Commons sitting days" later (Feb 12) a motion must be laid for a vote on Plan B. *This is too late for a snap Brexit election*
Why? Because under the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a vote of no confidence only triggers a general election if no alternative government can be formed within 14 days (Feb 26). After this 14-day period, by law there has to be a 6 week campaign (April 9). Brexit Day is March 29
Imagine the EU only agree an all-UK backstop in an emergency summit in Jan, what then? If MPs reject, forcing May back to the negotiating table, it's too late for an election. Is the only weapon left for MPs opposed to no-deal at this stage to form an alternative "pro deal" govt?
Read 3 tweets

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1. The one argument or no deal #Brexit that I can respect is a need for a complete political clear out but that must also include the ERG scumbags - and there is a real danger with this line of thinking that actually it won't make any difference.
2. The problem is as much to do with our top down culture of politics where Westminster continues to set the agenda and media falls into line - and so do all of you. The no deal propaganda campaign starts in the bowels of the tory right apparatus. Establishment as it gets.
3. There is no way our political class is ever going to admit they are the source of our problems thus we cannot expect them to resolve the problems - nor will they get out of the way voluntarily. They will continue to play their dimal tribal games.
Read 8 tweets
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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Morning campers, I’ll be live tweeting from the UK parliamentary hearing into @Facebook, misinformation and fake news today. Here’s what you need to know:
Lawmakers from nine countries are here in London to gripe about why Zuckerberg didn’t show up to speak to them. Expect a lot of that, plus Richard Allan, FB’s VP of “policy solutions,” to do a lot of apologizing
Nominally, this hearing is tied to @DamianCollins’ ongoing “fake news” investigation, which has led UK officials traveling to the US for hearings (on taxpayers £). But to be clear, they have no power to actually legislate
Read 43 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
1/10
Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
2/10
Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
Read 10 tweets

Trending hashtags

#GATT #London #Norway #budget #police #enforcement #excise #Brexit #imports #contribution #ProjectProsperity #law #amendment #Italian #discrimination #JeremyHunt #MHRA #Strauss #zones #brexit #BrexitShambles #trade #Tesco #EUWithdrawalAct #Chequers

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