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Judd Legum @JuddLegum
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. The conventional wisdom is that Kavanaugh's confirmation is a foregone conclusion.

Consider: This is a narrative that has been cultivated and constructed by Republicans to demoralize the opposition

popular.info/p/nothing-is-o…
2. Republicans control the Senate and most Supreme Court nominees are confirmed.

So confirmation is the most likely outcome

But here is an alternative perspective: the process thus far has gone about as well as possible for opponents to Kavanaugh

popular.info/p/nothing-is-o…
3. None of the Republicans with a plausible chance to vote against Kavanaugh have announced their support (Murkowski, Collins, Flake)

And none of the Democrats who voted for Gorsuch (Donnelly, Manchin, Heitkamp) have said they are supporting Kavanaugh

popular.info/p/nothing-is-o…
4. There are live issues in Kavanaugh's hearing that could cause him problems, including:

-- His views on abortion rights

-- His views on executive power

-- The millions of documents about his gov't service that have not been released

popular.info/p/nothing-is-o…
5. So, yes, like all nominees odds are Kavanaugh will be confirmed.

But the idea that the opposition is in a ditch is a myth

Until there are 50 votes in support of his nomination anything can happen

popular.info/p/nothing-is-o…
6. More of Kavanaugh and the state of his nomination in my newsletter, Popular Information.

Subscribe at popular.info
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TRUMP: "At the request of Democrats it will be a steel barrier rather than a concrete wall."

What Democrat has requested a border wall made of steel?
TRUMP: "The border wall would very quickly pay for itself."

Absolutely no evidence of this. Trump cites the cost of illegal drugs, most of which come through official ports of entry.
TRUMP: "The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico."

This is not true. And the deal hasn't even been approved by Congress.
Read 4 tweets
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A total and humiliating capitation to a president with no interest in the truth.

The news media is supposed to inform the public.

They are now being used to disseminate government propaganda.
REMEMBER: When Obama wanted to address the nation on immigration, the networks refused to air it because they believe it would be "overtly political."

What a joke.

goo.gl/a8SSgT
The idea that a Democratic rebuttal or fact-checking will make this better is insulting.

If I break my arm and a doctor gives me a cast, I'm thankful.

If a doctor breaks my arm and hands me a band-aid, it's not a favor.
Read 3 tweets
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Any network that airs this live is knowingly participating in a disinformation campaign
Some conflicting info, but @JenniferJJacobs of Bloomberg says the networks will air this live

This show just how deeply the mainstream media misunderstands Trump and his tactics

@JenniferJJacobs This is what happened when Obama gave a primetime address on immigration in 2014
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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(THREAD) Collins votes YES, so Kavanaugh’s confirmed.

This is the finale of the confirmation VOTE, but it is NOT the end of the #Kavanaugh ISSUE. 1/14
The FBI “investigation” was a sham, and that makes Collins’ special pleading for her YES vote a sham. It was a sickening performance. 2/14
The fatal weakness of her defense of her vote is that there was no meaningful investigation. Merely seeking corroboration in the form of direct, eyewitness testimony from the participants of the 1 Jul 1982 meeting does not constitute a meaningful investigation. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
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This is a key point to jurists that I think many "civilians" don't quite get. We've gotten used to conflating ideology with party affiliation in the US, in an intellectually lazy way — but in the judicial branch, the distinction is CRITICAL. It's the only branch where ideas… /1
…still matter. Honest. Judges can range from liberal to conservative, or have philosophies of jurisprudence that fall into various recognized buckets, but they don't identify in a formal way as Democrats or Republicans. Leaning conservative in a way that supports GOP… /2
…policies, values, and initiatives is one thing. That's not what #Kavanaugh displayed last week. He identified the Democratic Party as his enemy, accusing it of orchestrating a campaign to sabotage him personally, even naming names (Clinton, incredibly) — and vowed payback /3
Read 19 tweets
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I am saddened by how strongly I feel compelled to sign this letter opposing Judge #Kavanaugh's confirmation.

But as an administrative law professor, the decline in our respect for public institutions terrifies me.

<THREAD>

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Scholars of administrative law, among other things, teach, study, and write about public administration. This is a topic which has been vastly underappreciated in our nation for some time. (Although after the 2016 election, enrollments in my class finally started ticking up.) /2
Failing to take serious the importance of public administration runs the risk that critical needs -- non-poisonous water, efficacious national and #cyber defense, due process of law, and other many important guarantees of our Constitution and our laws may not be implemented. /3
Read 17 tweets
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If Kavanaugh's confirmation were a foregone conclusion, it would have happened already. It's not done until it's done.
If the GOP had the votes to move forward without a hearing on Blasey Ford, they would have done it. If they had the votes to move forward without an FBI investigation, they would have done it. They don't have 50 votes yet. Period.
Is it likely they'll have 50 votes to confirm Kavanaugh in a week? I don't know. I can make a case either way, and believe it. But I do know that they didn't have the votes this afternoon.
Read 5 tweets
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Trump: #Kavanaugh’s never had even a little blemish. I have great faith in the Senate and their process. If it [confirmation] has to be delayed a little, then it will be. Feinstein had this information and didn’t bring it up. It should’ve been brought up a long time ago. #SCOTUS
GOP @SenatorCollins: #Kavanaugh was emphatic in denying sexual assault allegations. Obviously if he lied about it, it would be disqualifying.
“Disqualifying”—Susan Collins is the first Senate Republican to say the word out loud: “Obviously if Judge Kavanaugh has lied about what happened, that would be disqualifying.” He should obviously withdraw, but that’s a precedent Trump might have to follow
Read 19 tweets
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Let's consider a lame joke that Colbert told last night, making fun of Judge #Kavanaugh's first name. The highlighted line seems like a throwaway, but it's important because it relies on a popular but false assumption about the "living Constitution." 1/
Colbert bases his joke on the belief that b/c Kavanaugh's an originalist, he's likely to take rights away. An accompanying presumption is that the living Constitution approach, which interprets Const according to modern standards, only grants more rights. But that's false. 2/
As my father put it, "the proponents of the living Constitution indulge the optimistic assumption that whatever changes are made in original meaning will always be in the direction of according greater individual freedom[.]" But those changes can also take away freedoms. /3
Read 9 tweets

Trending hashtags

#DueProcess #RuleOfLaw #Mueller #PAM #Kavanaugh #United #USVIA #StopKavanaugh #TrumpIsToast #Fear #confirmation #ThePatriotTimes #KavanaughConfirmation #kavanaugh #MarkJudge #Venezuela #GOP #ShePersisted #SaveKavanaugh #MeToo #PAMFAM #NutShellReport #MakePatriarchyFearYou #Skripals #ACA

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