Thread: Just aired at the HoL economic affairs committee, here is Chancellor @PhilipHammondUK's five point dissection of Patrick Minford's analysis championing a no deal Brexit today:
@PhilipHammondUK 1. "Minford assumes a 4pc benefit to GDP by unilaterally liberalising our trade - but that wouldn't leave us any leverage to negotiate trade deals with other countries. LSE found that boost would be 0.3pp. Open Europe 0.75pp."
@PhilipHammondUK 2. He makes no allowance for differences in quality or safety of imported goods; no allowance for distance related transport costs. He just assumes all standards on imported goods would be abolished.
3. Minford assumes there will be no non-tariff barriers between the UK and EU which is frankly not plausible.
4. For financial services he assumes equivalence similar to passporting - notwithstanding that we've heard loud & clear noises to the contrary from our near EU neighbours
4. For financial services he assumes equivalence similar to passporting - notwithstanding that we've heard loud & clear noises to the contrary from our near EU neighbours
5. I'm sure his model is v effective but the assumptions he makes are wildly out of line with those made in other models. And frankly, I believe, are not sustainable.
