Thread: This may look like a technical @ONS note (and yes technically it is) but it has profound consequences. It suggests the very basis of government plans to build hundreds of thousands of new homes may simply be wrong. Let me explain 1/ ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
The government's objective to build around 200k-plus new homes a year is based on the assumption that that's what the country needs. This passage from last year's housing white paper sums it up: we need 225-275k more homes a year. Instead we've been getting 160k a year 2/ 
And those numbers are based in large part on household projections from the @ONS, which implied an extra 210k new households being formed each year. Which brings us back to that technical note... 3/
The @ONS has just published a new study showing it overstated those projections. Look at the yellow line on this chart. Household numbers are rising much slower than expected. About 159k a year rather than 210k. It has changed its projections accordingly 4/
This is big stuff. It suggests that contrary to everything you've heard, the UK might have been building enough homes - or at least been closer to the optimal level than thought. @ianmulheirn has been banging on about this for ages. Now it's borne out by official nos 5/
The story doesn't end there. We've been misdiagnosing the housing crisis for yrs. Tomo on @skynews we'll be broadcasting a landmark report on what's REALLY going on in the housing market. I've been working on this with @resi_analyst for months and I promise it's a good'un 6/6
