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Ed Conway @EdConwaySky
, 4 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
New @skydata poll:
Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?
No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%
@SkyData Second @Skydata poll q: Would you support or oppose a referendum choosing between the draft Brexit deal proposed by Theresa May, Brexit without a deal, or remaining in the EU?
Strongly support 44%
Tend to support 11%
Tend to oppose 7%
Strongly oppose 28%
Don’t know 10%
@SkyData Third @skydata q: Who would you most trust to lead the country through Brexit?
Theresa May 31%
Jeremy Corbyn 25%
Jacob Rees-Mogg 18%
Boris Johnson 17%
Dominic Raab 10%
@SkyData Full results of today's @skydata Brexit poll. 1488 people polled today. interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118…
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Thread: This may look like a technical @ONS note (and yes technically it is) but it has profound consequences. It suggests the very basis of government plans to build hundreds of thousands of new homes may simply be wrong. Let me explain 1/ ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
The government's objective to build around 200k-plus new homes a year is based on the assumption that that's what the country needs. This passage from last year's housing white paper sums it up: we need 225-275k more homes a year. Instead we've been getting 160k a year 2/
And those numbers are based in large part on household projections from the @ONS, which implied an extra 210k new households being formed each year. Which brings us back to that technical note... 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Short thread: major note of caution needed with this Bank of England house price crash forecast story. Now (clearly) I wasn’t in cabinet & wasn’t privy to what was discussed. But I have a strong suspicion people are getting the wrong end of the stick here. Let me explain: 1/
The past few of years the Bank has run stress tests to see how well capitalised the banking system is. The fictional scenario is v ugly: house prices down 33%, unemployment up over 9%, interest rates up to 4%. Worse, in many senses, than what UK went through in the crisis 2/
These stress tests are explicitly not designed as forecasts. They are BEYOND WORSE CASE SCENARIOS which, like caps lock sentences, are supposed to shock the city into safe balance sheet behaviour. The good news is last yr the UK banks almost all passed 3/
Read 9 tweets
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Thread: Just aired at the HoL economic affairs committee, here is Chancellor @PhilipHammondUK's five point dissection of Patrick Minford's analysis championing a no deal Brexit today:
@PhilipHammondUK 1. "Minford assumes a 4pc benefit to GDP by unilaterally liberalising our trade - but that wouldn't leave us any leverage to negotiate trade deals with other countries. LSE found that boost would be 0.3pp. Open Europe 0.75pp."
@PhilipHammondUK 2. He makes no allowance for differences in quality or safety of imported goods; no allowance for distance related transport costs. He just assumes all standards on imported goods would be abolished.
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Another #Brexit #thread
1/ Here's the thing about the Theresa May — Jean-Claude Juncker spat over whether May was vague or not at the #EUCO summit table about her Brexit demands. It’s a sideshow because the undeniable reality is that Westminster-at-large is vague.
2/ Westminister is undeniably vague via there being no majority for any type of Brexit, yet an absolute insistence from the British government and opposition leader that nevertheless a hard-ish take back control Brexit must happen.
3/ That cul-de-sac is Theresa May's fault. Other leaders might have called Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Strugeon, Carwyn Jones and Arlene Foster round a single table and told them they weren't leaving until a tolerable version of Brexit could be agreed or, per above, tolerated
Read 14 tweets
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1) #Brexit - reality check, only Remain makes sense for our long term sanity

It's time to state some home truths, this is a mess, and it's only going to get messier. Leaver or Remainer, it's time to step back and recognise there's only one way out - Remain
2) firstly, the reality is there is little love for #Brexit left in the country. Maybe 35% of the country max still actively crave it, the rest are either resigned to it or hate it.

"Just get on with it" is a brief step from "just make it go away"
3) even #BBCqt, that great fortress of Leave support, is changing. Hartley-Brewer's cry of "we've had a people's vote!" would normally guarantee a whoop & a cheer, not any more, it got barely a ripple

Faith in Brexit is draining away

Read 20 tweets
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New @SkyData snap poll:

Of the three Brexit outcomes Theresa May says are available, would you prefer a) her deal, b) no deal or c) no Brexit?

No Brexit 54%
No deal 32%
Her deal 14%

interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT1_151118…
/2 post Agreement new @skydata snap poll:

Should we have a second EU referendum?
Yes 55%
No 35%

Who would you prefer to lead the country through Brexit?
Theresa May 31%
Jeremy Corbyn 25%
Jacob Rees-Mogg 18%
Boris Johnson 17%
Dominic Raab 10%
.../3

Nationally representative sample of 1488 Sky customers interviewed by SMS 15 November 2018. Data weighted to the profile of the population.
Read 4 tweets
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BREAKING: Confidence in the government's negotiating of #Brexit has plummeted, new polls from @SkyData find.

10% say @theresa_may's administration is doing a good job, compared to 23% in March.

78% say it is doing a bad job, compared to 55% in March.
Theresa May's personal ratings have taken a substantial hit, our new @SkyData poll finds.

24% of people are satisfied with her performance as PM, compared to 41% in March.

74% are dissatisfied with her performance as PM, compared to 60% in March.
A majority of people want a referendum on the final Brexit deal, our new @SkyData poll reveals.

50% say there should be a vote on accepting the government's deal, quitting without one and staying in the EU.

40% say there shouldn't be.
Read 8 tweets
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#NEW on ARC2020: #CAP & #MFF | Eco-Spin without Public Goods Substance.
Its been 2 weeks since the MFF proposals, here's our round up of some of the perspectives so far.
All perspective-givers tagged in picture.
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
What's needed?
@davidbaldock & Allan Buckwell of @IEEP_eu:
1: Sufficient funding for environmental measures in Pillar 1
2: Specifics for New Delivery Model
3: Flexibility for Pillar 1 to 2 transfers
4. Fund ANCs under Pillar 1
arc2020.eu/cap-mff-eco-sp…
#MFF #FutureofCAP #CAP
And who said: "unconditional direct income support to farmers is manifestly absurd in today’s world when it maintains uncompetitive farming practices that have negative implications for the climate, the environment or people’s health"?
Why @AnnikaAhtonen of @epc_eu
Read 8 tweets
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#b Excellence is overrated, competence is underrated.
Competence is knowing what to do in a situation and how to do it. It is not the same as excellence.
Excellence is dependent on other people, like judges, examiners, teachers, assessors, inspectors, auditors. But we can't control these people and whether they think we're excellent or not.
Read 12 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Brexit #EUCO #pseudoscience #mathematics #b #EURef #FinalSay #France #G7 #rhetoric #Reject #Senegal #subSaharanAfrica #StopBrexit #หวังcเยี่ย #brexit #ProjectFear #poll #Nigeria #BrexitDay #New #today #BrexitDeal #MFF #Labour

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