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KS #filthyremainer #FBPE @ks_1968
, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
@instituteforgov Summary
@instituteforgov We can't agree between ourselves never mind with EU
@instituteforgov Time taken by EU to agree deals compared to the tiny bright pink transition period. It's not long enough.
@instituteforgov £3bn so far to March 2020 and another 9000 staff on top of staff already recruited. All of which could have actually gone to the NHS instead.
@instituteforgov No deal prep way too late
@instituteforgov Time taken by UK gov to implement major projects compared to pale blue transition period. It's not long enough.
@instituteforgov Our preparedness for no deal in one screenshot. We will not be even slightly ready.

(The green bit is just that UK gov has agreed to carry on paying for EU funded projects till 2020)
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So, the Government has now released a summary of its legal advice on Brexit (which, according to press accounts, is actually much much longer than the secret legal advice itself ie it’s been massively padded).

In the document, you’ll that what it does

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
is summarise sections of the Withdrawal Agreement (with some references to the Political Declaration) and explains their consequences. Not in a clear, simple way, oh no. That would be too easy...

Anyway, with proviso that I am NOT a lawyer (hopefully actual lawyers can weigh in)
here are potential smoking guns I spotted in a quick read through:

1. p3 paragraph 2 reminds us that the EU treaties cease on Exit Day ie including all the trade agreements the EU has with third countries

2. p4 paragraph 9: EU law enshrined by WA trumps UK law if they differ
Read 18 tweets
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FYI, as soon as we pass Brexit Day (currently 29 March 2019, 11pm UK time) we're OUT of the EU. And once we're out, Brexit is irreversible. Also, we will have lost all our treaties.
1) During a transition period, we're already out.
2) During a backstop period, we're already out.
So while both an Article 50 extension and a longer transition period would give us more time to negotiate our future relationships with the EU and other countries, ONLY the A50 extension keeps us inside the EU. By TP time it's too late. We're gone, finito, game over!
Now, the transition period or backstopped period may shield us from the worst immediate effects of leaving the EU, but the cliff edge doesn't go away, it just moves. We still have no treaties and no trade agreements left. We just have longer to renegotiate everything.
Read 6 tweets
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Thread re Prime Minister on #BBCtoday @BBCr4today re #EU just now: she got her catchphrase in early and followed the classic media training advice 'repeat, repeat, repeat'. 3 years ago it was 'Long-term economic plan', now it is 'when we leave the EU free movement will end'
or 'when we leave the EU we will take back control of our money, our laws and our borders'. All of which is based on fallacy - claim of net out-flow of money has been demonstrated clearly many times, we elect our MEPs and the MPs who debate the EU regs and we have border controls
Astonishingly disdainful way she thinks of UK workers - they will be trained for the low skilled jobs currently done by people from EU27 countries, but we will still allow people in if they will have salary of £50k. She had no plan for immediate recruitment e.g. for care homes
Read 25 tweets
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1. There is a ‘global trend’ / ‘strategic direction’ argument that seems missing from much of the #Brexit debate on #trade. I’m no specialist, but for the uninitiated, it is broadly this: [thread, to which welcome contribution from true experts]
2. From the 1960s, economists and diplomats eyed up potential benefits to all parties of freer world trade. The GATT and later WTO are an expression of that.
3. Trouble is, a multilateral agreement proved damned difficult to negotiate on simple stuff - goods, esp agricultural products - never mind complex stuff that require greater regulatory compatibility.
Read 9 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Whilst in other statutes, the transition agreement is where you gloss over, here for Brexit, the transition is the most important bit because after 29th March 2019, without the ‘status quo’ stated in the transition, there will be no access to the EU institutions.
There is nothing in the Article 50 on the transition period, and therefore Article 50 has no legal competence for transition although it does say that any withdrawal agreement must bear in mind future relationships with EU.
There are three pillars to Brexit: 1) The withdrawal agreement, including transition 2) Divorce and 3) Future relations. In terms of future deals, the EU cannot do a free trade agreement with its own member, only with a third country. A way around this is to sign on the 30th Mar.
Read 15 tweets

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