Thread by @uk_domain_names

So, the Government has now released a summary of its legal advice on Brexit (which, according to press accounts, is actually much much longer than the secret legal advice itself ie it’s been massively padded).

In the document, you’ll that what it does

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

is summarise sections of the Withdrawal Agreement (with some references to the Political Declaration) and explains their consequences. Not in a clear, simple way, oh no. That would be too easy...

Anyway, with proviso that I am NOT a lawyer (hopefully actual lawyers can weigh in)

here are potential smoking guns I spotted in a quick read through:

1. p3 paragraph 2 reminds us that the EU treaties cease on Exit Day ie including all the trade agreements the EU has with third countries

2. p4 paragraph 9: EU law enshrined by WA trumps UK law if they differ

3. p6 paragraph 14: although the UK and EU have to act in good faith, the UK’s only remedy if there’s some doubt about the way the EU is behaving would be to provide hard evidence that the EU was acting in bad faith.

p8 paragraph 20: UK citizens living in an EU27 country who have not yet lived there 5 consecutive years would lose their right to keep living there if they leave that EU27 country for more than 6 months (with a few exceptions). Same applies to EU citizens in the UK.

P15 paragraph 42: the UK will have to pay a financial contribution to the EU (amount to be negotiated) during an extension to the transition period. This money is separate for what we owe in our leaving bill. In other words, extending the transition will NOT be free.

P. 17 paragraph 49: we’re out out on Brexit Day, so although the EU will ask third party countries to continue to apply their treaties to us as if we were still in the EU during the transition period, *there is no guarantee that will happen*. So we could lose certain trade

agreement benefits, for example, even WITH a transition period if the other party won’t play ball.

p.18 paragraph 50: we can negotiate new trade agreements during transition but they can’t take effect until transition ends. So there might be gaps (see previous point)

p18 paragraph 51: current fishing quotas will apply during transition. However, the UK and EU can negotiate new rules to apply after transition. *Document is silent on what happens if this negotiation fails.*

p.19 “Financial Settlement” doesn’t include an exact amount the UK

owes the EU, only a complicated series of formulas to work it out. So there could be potential future flashpoints there since there’s no nice tidy number to point to.

p.75 paragraph 76: explicitly spells out what we already know ie the Political Declaration is an aspirational

wishlist with no legally binding standing. This paragraph proves beyond doubt that anything in the PD not the WA can’t be relied on. Our only “protection” is that the EU (and UK) have to use their “best efforts, in good faith” - about as legally protective as tissue paper. So

anything Theresa May claims her deal gives the UK that is part of the PD isn’t guaranteed at all.

p.25 paragraph 77 doubles down on the above, in case it wasn’t already clear enough.

p.26 paragraph 81 seems to be the “selling out Gibraltar” bit, since it explains the agreements reached as relate to Gibraltar apply only until end of transition. p28 paragraph 91 doubles down on this.

p30 paragraph 4: now we’re at the infamous backstop. This confirms it will be indefinite but that both sides promise to try hard to limit its duration if it gets invoked (yep, another “best efforts” type clause)

p32 paragraph 8 & 9: you guessed it... we cannot leave the backstop

unless the EU agrees to it too ie no unilateral way to get out of it.

p34 paragraph 18: if the UK & EU haven’t managed to agree a new deal on fisheries by 1 July 2020, tariffs will become chargeable because fish are excluded from the common tariff agreement on all other goods.

p34 paragraph 20: if we’re in the backstop, we have to charge the same external tariffs as the EU, or higher ones, but never lower ones. In other words, we can’t lower UK tariffs to gain a trading advantage

p35 paragraph 22: EU can immediately bring in tariffs on UK goods if it thinks we’re fiddling our obligation to keep tariffs and trading conditions the same as the EU. It doesn’t have to go through a dispute resolution mechanism (though we could appeal after the fact)

Phew! That’s me spent. As I said in the preamble, I am not a lawyer so I can’t make any promises that my interpretation is correct.

I did, however, try to get everything correct in good faith😇

Please weigh in, especially if you *are* a lawyer. I make no claim to be right.