Thread by @NoonInKorea

Thae Yong-ho on NK's nuke strategy: "At the 7th Party Congress in May 2016, NK decided how to ensure becoming a nuclear state. The strategy decided was: India + Pakistan + alpha (α). And what's that alpha? The madman strategy of appearing to be irrational

That alpha reigned until the new year and the "fake peace initiative" started after that which reordered the sequence of nuke negotiations: it was always denuke then remove sanctions. But NK added to the sequence "Build Trust First," then remove sanction + econ coop, then denuke

NK managed to succeed in having this new sequence reflected in the Panmunjom Declaration (4.27) and Singapore Joint Statement (6.12). That's why it keeps insisting that the US must "build trust": interminable banquets when Pompeo visits, peace gestures, ceremonial pronouncements

Thae is right: observe the ordering of the paragraphs. Where is denuclearization in all 3 documents: last or next to last as an afterthought. All 3 documents are fluffs, have no teeth and aren't worth the paper they're written on.

nooninkorea.com/2018/04/4-28_i…

If you have no intent to denuke but want to package yourself as wanting to denuke while proceeding on the road to nuclear statehood, this is the way to go. Delay coughing up the nuke inventory as long as possible. At some point the US will lose interest but SK can't afford to

Why is coughing up the inventory such a big deal? It's a test of genuineness to see if NK has any inclination of denuking. Here, you have to understand the accounting definition: Inventory = Raw Materials + WIP + Finished Goods. Lump raw materials w/WIP = Current + Future Nukes

Assume NK has 60-80 warheads and Yongbyon + maybe Gangson + X still in operation. Has anything been done when NK isn't willing to cough up the inventory? No, if anything the inventory increased by ~6-8 this year as more WIPs and future nukes have turned into finished goods

Neither Punggye-ri nor Tongchang-ri has anything to do with reducing that inventory. Yongbyon could but only for a portion of future nukes not reflected in current inventory of finished goods. So what's Thae's point here? First, that alpha has slid off

In other words, NK is on its India-Pakistan path. Second, NK is not denuking; it wants to maintain the status quo or perhaps even enlarge its nuke arsenal. It sees nukes as a great equalizer for disparity in economic prowess and soft power: "We're moving toward a nuclear peace"