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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Ok, there are so many questionable / incorrect assertions in this IEA report it is hard to keep track. I'm going to summarise it as "more wishful thinking" for the time being iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Well this is embarrassing. The IEA report calls for food standards to be lowered to join TPP and have a US trade deal. Liam Fox last week said this wouldn't happen...
Oh and another one, the report specifically proposes reducing the advantages given to developing countries, by reducing tariffs to zero for all countries (I'll do a detailed thread later, these are headlines)
Looks like proposing financial services deregulation, which I'm sure will go down well with others (but reliant on FS gurus like @csgmoore to fill in the details here)
This is incredibly naive or duplicitous "US firms have not complained about the NHS" (p93).
If you want to show that you're an expert on a country's trade policy it would be helpful to be able to spell the name of one of the main exports correctly (this mistake is repeated, not a typo)
Anyway the hashtag is #PlanAPlus - I'd hate to have seen Plan A before the plus was added
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets
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A win for the Conservative anti no-deal party. Now how do the Conservative no-deal party react knowing that in the event of rejecting the PM's deal the numbers may exist to withdraw Article 50?
The instant judgement that this defeat is bad for the PM is I think wrong.

Most or all of the rebels today will vote for her deal, she now has a clear threat to use against ERG rebels - this deal or no Brexit.
fwiw I would say the chances of no-deal Brexit have now crashed and the chances of the PM's deal or similar gone up to perhaps 50%. But the chances of no-Brexit are also strengthening, given the PM's ability to be her own worst enemy
Read 4 tweets
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Am bored of reading the conventional wisdom that the EU could not renegotiate Brexit, and to make this case will borrow the wisdom of one of our most experienced MEPs @RCorbettMEP - this is how it COULD happen (and why it probably won't)
There is no more important Brexit job for MPs in the coming two months than to build consensus - something those more astute than the PM realised some time ago. Future relationship talks with a split Parliament could not succeed.
(The @RCorbettMEP article extracted earlier - labourlist.org/2019/01/richar…)
Read 3 tweets

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A brief comment about the section of this @iealondon @ShankerASingham report dealing with medicines. iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
In response to a “no deal will be fine” paper by the IEA’s @MissVHewson I pointed out the medium to long term dilemma that the paper failed to face up to.
That dilemma was that if you just follow EU approvals you lose regulatory capacity, but if you don’t then you get new drugs later as pharma companies prioritise bigger markets (the Canadian experience - see the paper cited in my thread).
Read 5 tweets
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The new @iealondon report opens with a bold claim that I presume will be substantiated later in the report.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Apparently big egs of EU regulations that are anti-competitive:REACH, MFIDII (cc @SMTuffy), GDPR, Port Services Regulation.

It then acknowledges that EU is exporting its approach globally (without noting this helps reduce barriers to trade) &says UK should lead charge against
Which is ... ambitious, what when you consider the relative size of the UK economy vis-a-vis the true regulatory superpowers of EU27, US and one day China.
Read 6 tweets
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This is @iealondon @MarkJLittlewood’s statement on the @Guardian’s story today iea.org.uk/media/iea-resp…

Most people realize ‘think tank engages in fundraising’ is not a credible story. Nonetheless, here’s a (long) #thread on their attempt to avoid engaging in the battle of ideas.
My colleagues and I have been facing an increasing number of accusations (mostly from social media), that we’re paid to say what we say. That our commitments to free-markets and liberty are simply bought-and-sold sound bites. This could not be further from the truth.
But let's pretend for a second...

The IEA’s turnover is roughly £2m per year. There are 32 people on our staff page. Divide that up, and that’s £62.5k each per year, to allegedly shill out for ‘big X’, to say things we don’t believe.
Read 23 tweets
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1. Used toilet paper has more value than the latest IEA report ... the authors show not the slightest understanding of the dynamics of the single market...
.
iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
2. As before, its principle author, Shanker "Snake Oil" Singham, remains obsessed with seeking mutual recognition of standards with the EU, something the EU will never accept and has rejected on multiple occasions... the latest here: europa.eu/rapid/press-re…
3. There is something of Proverbs 26:11 in Singham's approach to this issue. biblehub.com/proverbs/26-11… He seems to believe that, by dint of multiple repetitions, his stupidity will take root and become the perceived wisdom.
Read 6 tweets
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1/36

This is a long thread (I might release an abridged version), but it's quite important I think.

I know some will not make it to the end, so let me be absolutely clear upfront. This claim is a fantasy! It's not based on reality.

People are being misled!

Let me explain why.
2/36

On Sun 13 May @LowTaxChloe appeared on the @MarrShow as a paper reviewer and said that outside of the Customs Union "we can lower tariffs which would reduce the cost of food by an estimated 17%."

As often happens the claim went unchallenged by host @bbcnickrobinson.
3/36

Later that evening I was made aware of Chloe's claim by @TampS44 posting a thread that investigated the source of the 17% food price reduction claim. I was flattered to get a mention. Here's the thread.

Read 36 tweets
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Behind most Brexit claims lies an economic model, and a set of assumptions.

So when @Jacob_Rees_Mogg says that Brexit will reduce the cost of food, wine and clothes “by 20 per cent”, whose model, and assumptions, is he relying on?

express.co.uk/news/politics/…
The answer: Patrick Minford of Patrick Minford fame. He argues that post-Brexit, if the UK unilaterally drops all tariffs to zero, food prices would fall by about 20 per cent.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
In order to produce this figure, Minford makes the following assumptions:

That following Brexit:

-We will buy any given product at the lowest price available globally
-That distance does not have any impact on price
-That quality and safety does not have any impact on price
Read 7 tweets

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