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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The new @iealondon report opens with a bold claim that I presume will be substantiated later in the report.

iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Apparently big egs of EU regulations that are anti-competitive:REACH, MFIDII (cc @SMTuffy), GDPR, Port Services Regulation.

It then acknowledges that EU is exporting its approach globally (without noting this helps reduce barriers to trade) &says UK should lead charge against
Which is ... ambitious, what when you consider the relative size of the UK economy vis-a-vis the true regulatory superpowers of EU27, US and one day China.
I'm not convinced using the example of a country that benefited from an agreement (as a first mover) to reduce barriers to trade with the massive regional economy on its doorstep is quite the winning hard Brexit argument they think it is ...
After a long time slating other models for making reasonable assumptions, we get to IEA's model which finds that a 30% reduction in anti-competitive market distortions (still no idea) would be good for loads of countries. Unfortunately the methodology is not currently available.
The big criticism of Shanker's approach (the UK should potential new free trade deals & regulatory reform over frictionless trade with UK's most important trading partner) has always been there's no credible economic analysis to suggest this is a good idea.

There still isn't.
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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
Read 3 tweets

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It seems @YouTube removed the footage of the Q & A statement on the visit to the UK, by @Alston_UNSR, UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty & human rights. @theresa_may & @AmberRuddHR both dismiss it - judge for yourself. Here it is in document form: ohchr.org/Documents/Issu…
I am going to use this thread to share some of the data that is referenced from this report. Because it matters and isn't shared enough.
A new measure of poverty for the UK: The final report of the Social Metrics Commission. September 2018. Full report - socialmetricscommission.org.uk/MEASURING-POVE…
Via @jrf_uk Destitution in the UK (June) 2018. Full Report: jrf.org.uk/report/destitu…

"1,550,000 people, including 365,000 children, were destitute in the UK during 2017. They could not afford to buy the bare essentials we all need to eat, stay warm, dry, & clean."
Read 27 tweets
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A brief comment about the section of this @iealondon @ShankerASingham report dealing with medicines. iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
In response to a “no deal will be fine” paper by the IEA’s @MissVHewson I pointed out the medium to long term dilemma that the paper failed to face up to.
That dilemma was that if you just follow EU approvals you lose regulatory capacity, but if you don’t then you get new drugs later as pharma companies prioritise bigger markets (the Canadian experience - see the paper cited in my thread).
Read 5 tweets
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Right then, with the warning that this is going to be a long thread, I'm going to try to distill the key points from the IEA #PlanAPlus report - which is typical of their work - lots of trade terms used questionably 1/ iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
So this is upfront, in the Executive Summary. Zero tariffs on agriculture we do not produce. It is unlikely to make a huge difference to prices, but could make a big difference to developing countries who currently have zero tariffs 2/
I interpret this to mean we should replace the 21 month transition period with a basic Free Trade Agreement with the EU. Zero tariffs would require us to determine optimal rules of origin for all products in 6 months. Not happening 3/
Read 42 tweets
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Ok, there are so many questionable / incorrect assertions in this IEA report it is hard to keep track. I'm going to summarise it as "more wishful thinking" for the time being iea.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Well this is embarrassing. The IEA report calls for food standards to be lowered to join TPP and have a US trade deal. Liam Fox last week said this wouldn't happen...
Oh and another one, the report specifically proposes reducing the advantages given to developing countries, by reducing tariffs to zero for all countries (I'll do a detailed thread later, these are headlines)
Read 7 tweets
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This is @iealondon @MarkJLittlewood’s statement on the @Guardian’s story today iea.org.uk/media/iea-resp…

Most people realize ‘think tank engages in fundraising’ is not a credible story. Nonetheless, here’s a (long) #thread on their attempt to avoid engaging in the battle of ideas.
My colleagues and I have been facing an increasing number of accusations (mostly from social media), that we’re paid to say what we say. That our commitments to free-markets and liberty are simply bought-and-sold sound bites. This could not be further from the truth.
But let's pretend for a second...

The IEA’s turnover is roughly £2m per year. There are 32 people on our staff page. Divide that up, and that’s £62.5k each per year, to allegedly shill out for ‘big X’, to say things we don’t believe.
Read 23 tweets
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The is a must read to help bring together a practical understanding of both the single market AND the rôle of Customs in different legal arrangements.

Thank you @SamuelMarcLowe for drawing it to my attention.
@AlexChalkChelt @nikkirobson1 @Forty40Kings instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
2/. @jl_owen remind us that it is the four freedoms of the SM combined with the harmonisation of regulation, processes and legal oversight that has created the sophisticated and easy trading environment between member states.
3/ So, as we move away from this super harmonised highway that facilitates Trade & the movement of people it is worth remembering that each step away has consequences from widgets to people and legal oversight.
Read 25 tweets

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