The major Brexit problem faced by the Conservatives as they gather for conference is they have nothing to show for 2 years of Brexit negotiations - certainly nothing like was promised during the referendum - and are running out of road 1/
The PM is still frantically trying to hang on to the Chequers Plan for the future economic relationship, even though it is quite clear that without amendment in ways that would breach her own red lines it will not be acceptable to the EU 2/
The first level ERG response is to say we need a trade deal like for Canada - but the EU has only offered this in conjunction with a Northern Ireland backstop which looks unacceptable given the parliamentary maths. It also isn't frictionless trade 3/
So then from both PM and ERG we get no-deal better than a bad deal. But as the notices suggest this would be a huge potential shock to the economy, and it isn't a good look to have failed to reach a deal for what was going to be the easiest deal ever 4/
Meanwhile a mix of diehard remainers and more practical leavers could live with the EEA option as a pragmatic compromise, but that crosses both the PM's red lines and the ERG insistence of regulatory autonomy, so isn't gaining much traction 5/
The only solution that then appears to have even a chance is a blind Brexit where we park the decisions until later, but there's no guarantee of a parliamentary majority, and that also doesn't look like the brochure 6/
Meanwhile the longer this continues, the more the party is distracted from anything else, and the more relations with business fragment, particularly as it appears the ERG are trying to set up new business groups to replace the 'unhelpful' current ones 7/ allianceofbritishentrepreneurs.co.uk
Easy enough to diagnose, but almost impossible to fix? The chances remain that we stumble into a Withdrawal Agreement, and the battle continues, together with the blame game. Can anyone change that dynamic? 8/ ends
