1/ Having reflected on Kavanaugh's hearing, a few things are clear to me now, based on experience of legal strategy and witnesses:
(a) Kavanaugh may not remember the incident but *at the least* he is pretty sure it could have happened based on what he knows about his younger days
(a) Kavanaugh may not remember the incident but *at the least* he is pretty sure it could have happened based on what he knows about his younger days
2/
(b) Kavanaugh knows that he used to drink heavily and sometimes black out. He can't admit that because, combined with Ford's convincing testimony, it would lead most people to believe her memory is correct, and know that he can't gainsay her
(b) Kavanaugh knows that he used to drink heavily and sometimes black out. He can't admit that because, combined with Ford's convincing testimony, it would lead most people to believe her memory is correct, and know that he can't gainsay her
3/
(c) And he can't deny it because he puts himself at the risk of perjury. This is why the the committee was so reluctant to hear from other potential witnesses. Because the fact that he was a heavy drinker and sometimes didn't remember what happened would sink him.
(c) And he can't deny it because he puts himself at the risk of perjury. This is why the the committee was so reluctant to hear from other potential witnesses. Because the fact that he was a heavy drinker and sometimes didn't remember what happened would sink him.
4/
(d) Therefore, his only hope was to give the Republicans, who he knows for practical reasons are desperate to confirm him and will basically ignore most evidence of wrongdoing, no smoking gun e.g. the drinking and black outs. So he had to filibuster the questions about that.
(d) Therefore, his only hope was to give the Republicans, who he knows for practical reasons are desperate to confirm him and will basically ignore most evidence of wrongdoing, no smoking gun e.g. the drinking and black outs. So he had to filibuster the questions about that.
5/
(e) If the FBI investigate (as he feared) then they will speak to people who can't confirm the incident but can confirm Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker. That will sink him because, with Ford's clearly convincing testimony, it will undermine the picture he painted of himself
(e) If the FBI investigate (as he feared) then they will speak to people who can't confirm the incident but can confirm Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker. That will sink him because, with Ford's clearly convincing testimony, it will undermine the picture he painted of himself
6/
(f) I am not 100% sure, based on testimony alone, that the incident happened as Ford recalled. How can we know without corroboration - that's what criminal trials are for. But Kavanaugh's behaviour and strategy in the hearings suggest that he is very worried it might be true
(f) I am not 100% sure, based on testimony alone, that the incident happened as Ford recalled. How can we know without corroboration - that's what criminal trials are for. But Kavanaugh's behaviour and strategy in the hearings suggest that he is very worried it might be true
7
(e) Of course the other possibility is that he knows it happened or events like it happened and is therefore playing a very cynical game indeed. That is totally possible. But either way, my sense is that any further objective investigation will probably kill his candidacy.
(e) Of course the other possibility is that he knows it happened or events like it happened and is therefore playing a very cynical game indeed. That is totally possible. But either way, my sense is that any further objective investigation will probably kill his candidacy.
8/
This is excellent - excellent! - on Kavanaugh. Shows how evasive he was. He was dreadful. If I was his lawyer, and he was in front of an independent judge, I would have been depressed after his performance. But he's in front of biased committee instead currentaffairs.org/2018/09/how-we…
This is excellent - excellent! - on Kavanaugh. Shows how evasive he was. He was dreadful. If I was his lawyer, and he was in front of an independent judge, I would have been depressed after his performance. But he's in front of biased committee instead currentaffairs.org/2018/09/how-we…
