If McConnell wants to vote on Kavanaugh this week he has to file cloture on the nomination today or tomorrow. After cloture is filed there’s an intervening day, then a cloture vote (majority threshold) one hour after the Senate convenes the next day.
Once cloture is filed it can only be vitiated by unanimous consent, So while you’re not 100% locked in, you’re pretty much there. And at that point it’s out of the leader’s control since any individual senator has the power to object to vitiating & keep you locked in to vote.
Last thing: the schedule isn’t affected by what time of day cloture is filed. All that matters is the day on which it is filed. McConnell can file cloture on his way out the door tonight to set up a vote for Friday morning. Ditto tomorrow for Saturday morning, etc.
