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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
“Charlie Munger has read more broadly and has had another 22 years to read further. He always a broader reader than I was and so has this ability to call on these references. Its it’s kind of silly to think that we can reinvent all the wisdom in the world. " Howard Marks
“I probably know Howard Marks as well as I know anybody. He is a very smart man. You have to believe in the tooth fairy to believe [Bernie Madoff] was having those figures by the methods he claimed to use. You wouldn’t have gotten that one by Marks for 2 seconds." Charlie Munger
"I was fortunate to have one of my occasional lunches with Charlie Munger. As it ended and I got up to go, he said something about investing that I keep going back to: “It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.” Howard Marks
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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Thread 👇🏽

Recently finished Influence by Robert Cialdini.

Many people say it is one of the most important books they've read. When Charlie Munger first read it, he sent Cialdini an A share of Berkshire b/c he was so grateful. That is worth 300k today.

Here's my synopsis...
Main Thesis:

We all have automatic responses programmed into us that can be taken advantage of. It is through these psychological vulnerabilities that the marketer, or anyone really, can prey.

The books goes over the 7 main vulnerabilities and how you can deal with them.
The 7 tools are as follows:

1. Contrast (not explicitly a tool, but it qualifies)
2. Reciprocation
3. Commitment and Consistency (lumped together b/c similar)
4. Social Proof
5. Liking
6. Authority
7. Scarcity
Read 20 tweets
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Another tragic and unnecessary death. I think every junior doctor in today’s NHS can empathise. We’ve all been there, to some degree. Myself included. This is what it’s like. /thread

birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-…
I’m a “junior” doctor. I’ve been a doctor for six years, in training for twelve years. There are four levels, from newest to most senior: F1 (first year). Senior House officer (1-3 years), Registrar (1-5 years). I am a Registrar. /1
The hardest parts of our jobs are not usually the textbook bits: it’s all of the other bits that keep me up at night. /2
Read 28 tweets
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always small, always better, always wrong.
this is the mantra for anyone who seeks change in virtually any genuinely complex environment.
i've written a lot about small and better, but not so much about wrong, which is what i want to take up today, but first, a little refresher.
Read 29 tweets
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Permit me take a break from Politics Twitter....

This is Strictly For Adults...

30 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT SEX.

ISSA THREAD!
1. The fact that she's wet doesn't mean you should come in. Wait for her to beg and crave for it. That's when the fun begins...
2. Always start with foreplay. Continue with foreplay. Before you ever think of penetration. You make your job easier when you do that.
Read 39 tweets
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1/ Genius rests in simplicity, not complexity.
2/ In each moment, there are an infinite number of things to do. An infinite number of facts to know, books to read, or places to go.

How should we decide what to do?
3/ On Wednesday, I saw Sam Zell speak. A very successful investor, he’s guided by simple maxims:

1) Follow the demand.
2) Good opportunities are easy to explain.
3) Invest when there’s big upside, small downside.

These rules let Zell succeed in spite of chaos + uncertainty.
Read 22 tweets
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.@katecrawford makes many very important points. Here is my attempt to translate some of them into engineering terminology. 1/
As ML researchers and practitioners, we tend to formulate the problem as learning a mapping from inputs X to outputs Y. Crawford's point about bias in the data is that we aren't observing the real inputs or the real outputs 2/
For example, in crime prediction, X is not a sample from the population but instead from the subset of the population investigated by the police. 3/
Read 12 tweets

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