I keep thinking about the problem of climate change metaphors, and getting annoyed with the commonly used (guilty!) asteroid version. The problem is that it (and some of the IPCC 2030 messaging right now) suggests some definitive deadline—the moment the asteroid will strike.
But that's not really how this works. The frog-in-boiling-water one annoys me also, partially because it removes any agency from the frog, though of course the asteroid one does that as well.
SO:
SO:
How about this. Imagine there is a giant pile of shit in your back yard.
You put it there. Maybe you own cows, or just a really prolific couple of dogs, or whatever. You look out the window, you see a giant pile of shit.
You put it there. Maybe you own cows, or just a really prolific couple of dogs, or whatever. You look out the window, you see a giant pile of shit.
Every day, you add more shit to your pile. It's already kind of in the way, like to get our to your driveway you have to tiptoe around it, and it's definitely smelling up the neighborhood and you get tons of complaints.
But you just keep adding shit to the pile.
But you just keep adding shit to the pile.
You do some math based on your past shitpile trends, and you realize that by around 2030, you will be almost unable to go out your backdoor anymore due to the shit. You could just squeak out, but you'd be covered in shit quickly. Impossible to avoid any longer.
Another 10 or 15 years beyond that, and your back door literally will not open anymore due to the giant pile of shit.
The entire neighborhood hates you, wants to move away but can't sell their houses because you fucked up their property values because of, you know, the shit.
The entire neighborhood hates you, wants to move away but can't sell their houses because you fucked up their property values because of, you know, the shit.
Forget the fact that, in retrospect, what the FUCK were you doing piling shit up in your yard in the first place.
Instead, just think about the very first step you would take when confronted with such a dire future scenario: STOP PILING SHIT IN YOUR YARD.
Instead, just think about the very first step you would take when confronted with such a dire future scenario: STOP PILING SHIT IN YOUR YARD.
Even if it were logistically difficult, you would try extremely hard to find an alternative to your shitpile. Not because the shitpile will explode in exactly 10 years or something, but because you are slowly making your house and neighborhood completely unlivable.
So yeah, it’s not an asteroid, and we’re not a frog. We’re just casually hurling more and more shit into our own yard, day after day, and getting closer and closer to a permanently shit-stained existence.
