Thread by @xformed

1/IMHO Thread.

Considering all that is happening south of the border, this isn't merely a "distraction" from elections, nor is it a case of legitimately seeking asylum, and I think far beyond circumstance to "embarrass" the President.

A "force" 10-15K is growing rapidly.

2/Begun as a "few thousand," it's now the size of an Army Division. Granted, no weapons on them, but consider that. Yes, it's even got women, too, but...the pictures appear to have vast percentage of ppl in frame as military aged males. Not a lot of kids, either.

3/They still have days to get to the US-Mexican Border, so how large a group might we be facing, as the showdown is set to happen?

Big picture in my mind: This is a not kidding proxy war on the US by foreign governments, and obviously fueled by massive amounts of NGO funding.

4/I've decided this is "Warfare 3.0"

For about of history of civilization, warfare has been between functional militarizes, armed and uniformed, but sanctioned by groups of nations.

Warfare 1.0.

5/Then about 1940-50 era, People's Revolution became a thing. Off top of my head, starting w/ Mao in China during/after WWII.

Warfare 2.0.

All over SE Asia, later ME in our times, but it's functional military units vs uniformed militaries.

VC, AQ, ISIS, IRA like stuff.

6/Now, a new "manner" of a fight: Invasion by "non-combatants."

Warfare 3.0.

Laws of Armed Conflict require militaries to minimize "collateral damage" to this class of ppl in war zones.

So here we are, maybe a week or two away from a "Mexican Standoff," literally.

7/W/o a border, we can't be considered a nation. Boundaries determine extent of our interaction with all other nation-states on the planet.

We have, for too many years, out of "compassion" for the "poor" of the world, to pretend ours don't exist, a condition made by our elites.

8/That's one issue: We're killing our selves with compassion, as those with dead relatives from drugs and crime. I digress.

But: Back to Warfare 3.0:

First observation: Mexico made an pitiful effort for a few hours to pretend they were going to stop it at their borders.

9/Seriously? Yeah, what? Only 500 LE available to defend their own country? If they were serious, they'd have repelled borders! But no. Once they pushed few gates, they're allowed 2 continue North. And let's also wonder, if they're on their way, who is swelling their ranks?

10/The added members are either being added in Mexico (by who?), or they are fast walking from Honduras to catch up....yes, how else? Not likely, but Mexican LE has abandoned their posts if they're still streaming from the south.

11/Optics: Small group claims heart tugging need 4 asylum from their country....& then the "common man" decides to march in support, then more and more and more...to express how it's not just a few.

"We" weep for these poor ppl and quote a brass plate poem added decades later.

12/Then have #FNM amplify the story about the rightness.

Sad, we have to realize about 1/2 of the voters will fall for raping their own productivity to support this group.

13/Technically, I'll start with an observation yesterday. When going for a 50 mile hike in the Olympics for a week, I carried far more than these people, and still figured living off the land for firewood,

These people aren't, in the frame of media pics, even close to equipped.

14/So that leads to the proper question:

How are they doing this 1K "hike" unsupported for the necessities of life?

They aren't. Otherwise after day 2-3, it would have fizzled.

Enter Warfare 3.0 basic: Napoleon knew. An army travels on it's stomach. So does someone else.

15/Someone had to plan logistics. And they had to take some time to do it, it's not a week's notice thing. Our military units can move fast, because the gear/food/water/supplies are already staged for that. It took contacts and "Pork Chops" to get it together.

16/Hence in a 24 hour period, the All American 82nd Airborne can be moving. Years of planning for that, not days.

And: As "light infantry" they're set for 3 days. After that, supplies are needed to sustain them.

So look at this herd in that light.

17/Somewhere there has been an operational planning cell for a time such as this. It certainly could have been stood up after the shock of 11/6/16 and been ready to execute now.

Gathering the "economic refugees," determining the "end strength" to perform an assault.....

18/Strategic/Policy group to game out alliances, "legal" World Court issues to precisely bring this conflict, while looking perfectly justified.

Note UN put out "Migration is a human right" this week.....

Then the "Public Affairs" (read propagandists) get activated.

19/The operational cell has been plotting the rally point for the troops, and planning the route. Estimating "enemy" responses, and employing the supply/logistics crew to get cracking on acquiring sufficient resources to feed/cloth and care for sanitary needs along the way.

20/Once obtained, planning has to determine caching along the way. Once that's in place, now taking delivery and trucking the split out resources to warehouses on the route Ops gave them.

Doesn't sound simple? It's not. Logistics is the weakest link in ops.

21/So it seems they're done bang up job to this point to keep such a walking force still on mission.

By default, unless they have a log fail that's open to see, many won't realize how detailed such efforts are for this to happen. It's huge. Costs piles o' cash and transport .

22/All warfare is based on this, 1.0. 2.0 and 3.0.

And it take lots of time and attention of detail.

Paper trail does exist. The Ops would require many, many companies involved.

Regular transportation of goods documents have to exist.

Fun citizen journalist project.

23/So into the pragmatic issues at hand:

Say 10K ppl show up at our border, with the intention of invading (seriously, that's what it is). We have no wall, you know the Ops bubbas route takes them far from established entry points. I would.

It's a large group, easily tracked.

24/And it has "momentum." It falls under a body in motion tends to stay in motion physics and it's future path reasonably easily determined by geography and the realities of the defending resources ability to counter them.

25/Enter Command-in-Chief. A force, not aligned w/ any nation state recognized in Intl Law, sizable enough 2 literally overwhelm forces constrained by compassion (not bad thing in big picture) cannot ask Congress 2 declare war.

There is no foreign actor/actors to have war with.

26/He is charged with defense of the Nation. This invasion requires response per Constitution duty.

Now the enemy, undetermined in Laws of Armed Conflict, has us in a bind. Can Congress demand he, per The Constitution, get their vote?

27/If they do, a "slow motion Pearl Harbor Attack" will be on our border before debate can reach a vote. The Left will revel in it's ability, aided by the International Brotherhood of Crisis Actors, to show this interloper in their political circles how they can bring him down.

28/First step is to tie his hands. Despite the tactics he's used with Mueller and so many others to sit back and watch them hoist themselves on their own petards, this need action quickly. Screamed for "Co-Equal Branch of Government!" approval will echo via the World's #FNM.

29/If, as is case, he declares there is no one 2 declare war on and deploys military forces as a National Security measure, he will be instantly deemed a tyrant, wrongfully so, but that label will resound everywhere. As decisive as he is, this will still be carefully considered.

30/And when military forces are in place, as will have to be done at this point of 10K assaulters, the Rules of engagement (ROE) will be profoundly difficult and JAG bubbas will mostly control operations as a result, not operational commanders.

31/I'm not at end of thought process/analysis, but need 2 get something done. I'll be back to continue, as there is much 2 consider in this exceptionally dangerous moment for the Republic.

I look forward to comments on all of this. I bet there are great ideas and counterpoints

@hrtablaze adding to your tweet about 7500 and growing "Democrat voters"

32/Once the Military is involved in the mix, It's going to get interesting laying out ROE. Law enforcement is not the mission of the Military. Combat is. All ROE is premised on uniformed vs uniformed military facing off. Non-combatant presence is modifier for collateral damage.

33/While out on break, I realized the events facing us have attributes we've seen before and have been used against us before, on a smaller scale: Human shields. Different this time is the sheer mass of them layered about the embedded real terrorists. That we haven't faced.

34/I recall stores from troops in AFG where ROE was if any non-combatants were present, they couldn't fire. The enemy knew that and used it. Same here, but shifting the mix of Non- to Combatants to the other end of the scale.

35/ROE is actually not about fighting, as much as controlling onset of fighting. What you can & can't do leading up to, or averting, the kinetic "meeting."

And then, if joined, is about killing the other ppl, before they kill you.

The "meeting" seems to be most likely assured.

36/Basic ROE is 2 allow for self defense. Also 2 react 2 "hostile intent." In each case, an armed adversary would have to be in the vicinity.

See where all of a sudden, it's complicated to the n-th degree for any military, or National Guard (who would operate in same manner)?

37/In other words, the ROE, the primary method of employing troops who are defenders, not law enforcement, pretty much don't exist.

If an unarmed group comes at you, but carries no weapons...how do you claim hostile intent, or even self defense? Thorny.

38/I'm sure SecDef Mattis is on his 48th cup of "just black" coffee coming up with a plan, and is in constant contact with CoS Kelly. We're in good hands, but it's messy none the less.

ROE for dummies: You can be the hero, or the one who torched the World.

39/(Raising hand, changing facets) Battle planning 101 (H/T Adm Wesley E Jordan, Jr): Know yourself, know the enemy, know the environment, and the plan writes itself.

Tested. Result: True.

40/A group, based on time, speed and distance & controlled by terrain will be easy enough to track and maneuver to block. Between drones and other assets that can see across borders without crossing them, the area covered is identified based on knowing your enemy's capabilities.

41/Mobile mounted units as in armored cavalry units have the advantage, backed up by airmobile units.

Next is estimating the forces to them come face to face, and how they'll be equipped.

*Don't discount some Lefties screaming about Posse Comitatus, but it doesn't apply

42/We can equip them with riot gear, but I suspect that's in short supply for this scale of effort in DoD hands. I also doubt local LE would hand it over, which may be smart if this gets ugly, I suspect the domestic terrorist will come out in force....

43/So we're left with troops with standard issue M4s and sidearms. Facing masses of several hundred right at you, knowing ppl have been trampled to death, self defense at a personal lvl isn't out of the question, even with standing orders to not engage.

44/Kent State. But, make sure you understand, audio analysis confirmed what troops said: They were fired upon first. indybay.org/newsitems/2010….

If it comes down to shooting, it will be as divisive as that, but with international implications.

45/(not planned, but it's time for 45)President Trump will have to make a Hobson's Choice.

Use military to defend Nation with deadly force, or let a group of 10K (or as another tweet mentioned possible +40K Mexicans for 50K) just walk into our Nation and economically lay waste.

46/At best, we don't have facilities to even absorb ppl to process them, if we are straight up compassionate. That alone will lead to cries of the President abusing these innocents who just want a better life, forget ripping babies away from families.

47/At worst, the command to open fire will occur.

I pray not, for the men and women faced with obeying never signed up to shot non-combatants. I've read at a personal lvl that's a winning ticket to PTSD.

It's an unimaginable thought that may happen.

48/Wrapping up: The enemy, what ever/whoever they may be, have been having dress rehearsals in Europe at least. This time they're gunning for America, and having seen decades of just letting it happen.

49/Terrorists, as @STUinSD thread on Iranian/Islamic influence in SA since 80s tells me it's certainly easy for them to exploit this as a Trojan horse.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1053774…

50/I think we are about to have our D-Day in Warfare 3.0 mode, except we're the ones on Normandy looking out at the approaching forces.

I also think the Left and their Allies, are right in line with with Nancy Pelosi's comment on collateral damage. If there's death "so be it."

51/I firmly believe, as this is too large for some organic small group to pull off, there are powerful forces in the background, and they have been after this for years, maybe hoping it just would happen slowly by acclimation, but 11/6/2016 caused "Plan B."

52/I also believe the ppl of this group headed north are but pawns to those people, and they care not 1 bit about their welfare, even if they get in and have to live in the shadows. Worse, they'll let them die if it causes a World and domestic outcry against the President.

53/We have been doomed to live in interesting times.

I also think this is event is a fundamental shift in how warfare will occur.
#Warfare3pt0

/End

@RealJamesWoods I did a wee bit of speculating on this entire issue here.....you're right, not a "hey, let's hike up to the US!" on a lark gig.