Hi. Terrorism professor here. If you're wondering why I haven't commented on today's attempted bombings, it's because we don't know enough yet.
The only thing I can say with confidence is some of you speculating and accusing are crawling out onto limbs that'll get sawed off soon.
The only thing I can say with confidence is some of you speculating and accusing are crawling out onto limbs that'll get sawed off soon.
Enough public info now for early analysis of the attempted bombings.
THREAD--Will update as more info becomes public.
First, this fits the definition of terrorism: Non-combatant targets, violent (at least one device confirmed active), almost certainly political.
1/x
THREAD--Will update as more info becomes public.
First, this fits the definition of terrorism: Non-combatant targets, violent (at least one device confirmed active), almost certainly political.
1/x
Terrorism, by definition, is political. By contrast, criminal violence is for personal reasons. Violence by drug traffickers trying to make money, angry person seeking revenge, etc. aren't terrorism.
2/x
2/x
Targeting a political figure is not necessarily terrorism. For example, Jared Loughner targeted Rep. Gabby Giffords and killed a judge. But he was schizophrenic and attacked Giffords because he believed she snubbed him at a rally years ago.
Personal, not terrorism.
3/x
Personal, not terrorism.
3/x
But simultaneously attacking multiple political figures (Clintons, Obamas, Soros, John Brennan and others) indicates a clear political motive. That makes it terrorism.
And at least some of the bombs have the same design, which indicates they have the same maker.
4/x
And at least some of the bombs have the same design, which indicates they have the same maker.
4/x
Here's photos of the bomb sent to CNN. A few things jump out:
1) No postmark. Packages sent through the mail are required to have a postmark on the side with the address. Could be an error, but likely indicates package hand-delivered, not mailed.
5/x
1) No postmark. Packages sent through the mail are required to have a postmark on the side with the address. Could be an error, but likely indicates package hand-delivered, not mailed.
5/x
2) On bomb package sent to CNN, "Florida" misspelled in return address, "Brennan" misspelled in address, and Brennan contributes to MSNBC, not CNN.
There's a widespread assumption that terrorists are smart--basically supervillains with elaborate plots--but often they're not.
6/x
There's a widespread assumption that terrorists are smart--basically supervillains with elaborate plots--but often they're not.
6/x
Terrorism is hard. Many instances of attempted attacks failing because the attacker messed up.
Seen speculation that the bombs not going off is some sort of indicator.
Most likely, it's just that law enforcement is good at what they do, and this terrorist is an amateur.
7/x
Seen speculation that the bombs not going off is some sort of indicator.
Most likely, it's just that law enforcement is good at what they do, and this terrorist is an amateur.
7/x
Class starting, back with more later
8/x
8/x
Likely some who delivered the packages recorded on camera. CNN package had no postmark, but not sure about others. A courier would be a better lead than a mail carrier. No idea if bomber delivered one in person. Investigators surely looking into this.
9/x
9/x
Zoom in on bomb sent to CNN. Appears to be ISIS flag on device.
Given amateurishness of attack, almost certainly not ISIS itself. Could be ISIS sympathizer. Could also be someone(s) who thought this would send investigators in wrong direction.
Noteworthy, but need more info.
10/x
Given amateurishness of attack, almost certainly not ISIS itself. Could be ISIS sympathizer. Could also be someone(s) who thought this would send investigators in wrong direction.
Noteworthy, but need more info.
10/x
UPDATE: What looked like ISIS flag on pipe bomb sent to CNN appears to be a parody. Thanks to readers who pointed it out.
Amateurishness of bombs already indicated unlikely ISIS, but parody flag means not ISIS sympathizer or law enforcement misdirect.
11/x
Amateurishness of bombs already indicated unlikely ISIS, but parody flag means not ISIS sympathizer or law enforcement misdirect.
11/x
Rhetoric can motivate violence. And not just direct incitement.
That being said, I think it's irresponsible to assume terrorist(s) who haven't been identified or released any statement were motivated by any specific rhetoric based on chosen targets.
12/x
That being said, I think it's irresponsible to assume terrorist(s) who haven't been identified or released any statement were motivated by any specific rhetoric based on chosen targets.
12/x
Good example of incorrect speculation connecting rhetoric and violence: Giffords shooting in AZ. Sarah Palin released map of districts to "target," which some blamed for motivating shooter. Turns out shooter wasn't motivated by political rhetoric at all (see tweet 3 above).
13/x
13/x
We don't know who sent the bombs yet. There's nothing lost--absolutely nothing--in waiting a few days for law enforcement to investigate.
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