1/ NV Early Vote Deep Dive --- The Story of the Clark County AKA The Story of the Republican enthusiasm in the rest of NV. As most of you know, NV is mostly Las Vegas (Clark Co.), Reno (Washoe Co.) and the rurals. These 3 places act essentially like 3 unique voting blocks.
2/ Clark Co. is the behemoth. In 2016, almost 70% of NV votes were cast in Clark. That also explains the gradual turning blue of the state over the past decades because of exploding population of Vegas and all her new residents. That’s for a different story.
3/ When 2016 and 2018 (6 days so far) early voting data was analyzed, one striking thing appeared. It is the Clark Co. that has changed in terms of D/R ratios of the early votes. Washoe and the rural counties remain strikingly the same. 
4/ It is in Clark where the Dems turned out much less and GOP turned out much more in this year so far, compared to 2016. It makes sense because Clark is where most of the Dems live and Dems are relatively less enthusiastic this year than in 2016.
5/ In other words, Dems in Clark are following the historical trend of dropping enthusiasm in midterms compared to presidential year. It is actually the Repubs in the whole NV that are really pumped up and currently matching the enthusiasm of a presidential year, 2016 #RedWave
6/ Dem advantage after 14 days in Clark Co was 73k. This year I estimate that to be around 30 to 35k. Washoe would likely be a wash. The rural counties should counter Clark's and the balance of Dem advantage on Nov 5 will be about 5k to 10k range, I think.
In a few more days when I have more early voting data in NV, I'll follow up with my prediction on how the election day vote will break down. My gut tells me it'll be a #redwave
